Minnesota at risk of losing a congressional seat after 2020 census

Minnesota is facing the risk of losing one of its congressional seats after the next census amid booming population gains elsewhere in the country, a rare event that could diminish the state’s voice in Washington.

It’s been half a century since Minnesota last lost a congressional seat, and more than a century since it had fewer than eight representatives in the U.S. House. But despite outpacing the rest of the Midwest in population gains since 2010, Minnesota’s growth has been overshadowed by massive shifts in places like Texas and Florida.

Similar fears of losing a seat preceded the 2010 census, when Minnesota ultimately retained to its eighth seat by just a couple of thousand people. A lot could change before the 2020 census, which determines how the seats are distributed, but state demographer Susan Brower said Minnesota appears more at risk than last time. Most national analyses are forecasting that Minnesota will drop a seat based on current population trends. “It’s not certain, but it looks serious and it looks like it’s maybe even likely,” Brower said.

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Minnesota has added about 216,000 people since 2010, based on the latest estimates from the Census Bureau, a growth rate of about 4 percent. Most of it was due to births outpacing deaths and international migration rather than domestic migration. About 85 percent of the state’s growth was in the seven-county metro area.

Texas, Florida and California, by comparison, have all grown by more than a million people. Florida and Texas are each expected to pick up a couple of congressional seats, based on an analysis by Virginia-based Election Data Services, a consulting firm that tracks the issue. States the group expects to lose a seat are largely Midwestern and Northeastern, including Minnesota, Illinois, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Alabama and West Virginia.

http://www.startribune.com/minnesota-at-risk-of-losing-a-congressional-seat-after-2020-census/419545063/




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One would hope that all of the migration form blue to red states would at least make the latter purple...