Dr. Anthony Fauci on Monday told the Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA) that Minnesota’s “insidious” rising percent of positive COVID-19 tests suggest a future surge like outbreaks that have slammed the southern U.S.

Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, also said a pause on reopening is worth considering. Minnesota’s seven-day rolling positive case average is 5.1 percent, up from 5.0 percent this weekend and 4.9 percent on Wednesday. The rate has generally increased slowly since June.

Said Fauci: “It’s become clear now as you look back at the states in the southern region that have surged up … that prior to the surge you could detect an early increase in the percent positive for any given state. Even if it goes up by 1 to 1.5 percentage points, and it continues to go up. It generally does not spontaneously come down.”

State officials, he said, “may need to pause” reopening or “drop back a little bit.”