Minnesota

question everything

(48,833 posts) Sun Aug 30, 2020, 12:26 PM Aug 2020

Race is tightening

Trafalgar Group (never heard of them) put Biden and Trump at 47 each.

https://www.270towin.com/2020-polls-biden-trump/minnesota/

Tina smith leads Jason Lewis 48 to 45 - within the margin of error and is now considered a tossup.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/minnesota/

I really am afraid that Trump will win Minnesota. I did not realize, until recently, that he lost Minnesota in the smallest margin.

Smith and Biden better start condemning the "unrest" in the strongest terms. Blame it on outside agitators, or something. But speak up. Deflecting the blame to Trump will not do it.

Smith was interviewed this morning

https://minnesota.cbslocal.com/video/4684941-sen-tina-smith-joins-esme-murphy-in-studio/

15 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

Race is tightening (Original Post) question everything Aug 2020 OP

Omg MFM008 Aug 2020 #1

Trafalgar Group is too much of an outlier BlueWavePsych Aug 2020 #2

Thanks. And welcome to DU question everything Aug 2020 #4

Trafalgar is GOP leaning pollster DetroitLegalBeagle Aug 2020 #3

What about Emerson College? question everything Aug 2020 #6

Trafslgar is a c- rated pollster. Lets see what better rated pollsters come up with still_one Aug 2020 #5

Emerson, college? See above? question everything Aug 2020 #7

That is from August 18. Meaningless because that was before the conventions, and other things that still_one Aug 2020 #8

The only poll to correctly call 16 has Biden with a 14pt lead. High ratings..the race is not tight Thekaspervote Aug 2020 #9

Dead tRrump bounce BlueWavePsych Aug 2020 #10

It won't be the National polls but the swing states that will determine the election still_one Aug 2020 #11

I'm getting a good feeling about FL, PA, MI, WI and even AZ. BlueWavePsych Aug 2020 #12

I would have to see what happens in the next couple of weeks with the polling in those still_one Aug 2020 #14

But not for Minnesota. The polls that I cited are for Minnesota question everything Aug 2020 #15

Biden needs to take MN!! It has voted Dem for 48 years! But if he locks up FL it's kinda moot. OrlandoDem2 Aug 2020 #13

MFM008

(20,000 posts)

1. Omg

Reply to question everything (Original post)

Sun Aug 30, 2020, 12:32 PM

Aug 2020

Lets give it a rest.
There are still 2 months and 3 debates.

BlueWavePsych

(3,056 posts)

2. Trafalgar Group is too much of an outlier

Reply to question everything (Original post)

Sun Aug 30, 2020, 12:33 PM

Aug 2020

... to be credible.

question everything

(48,833 posts)

4. Thanks. And welcome to DU

Reply to BlueWavePsych (Reply #2)

Sun Aug 30, 2020, 12:35 PM

Aug 2020

DetroitLegalBeagle

(2,170 posts)

3. Trafalgar is GOP leaning pollster

Reply to question everything (Original post)

Sun Aug 30, 2020, 12:35 PM

Aug 2020

But, if I remember correctly, they got Michigan and Pennsylvania right in 2016, as well as the Florida Gov and Senate races in 2018.

question everything

(48,833 posts)

6. What about Emerson College?

Reply to DetroitLegalBeagle (Reply #3)

Sun Aug 30, 2020, 12:44 PM

Aug 2020

Biden 51, Trump 49 which, I think, is also within the margin of error

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/minnesota/

What also scares me, is that Fischbach is leading Peterson by 10 points.

still_one

(96,555 posts)

5. Trafslgar is a c- rated pollster. Lets see what better rated pollsters come up with

Reply to question everything (Original post)

Sun Aug 30, 2020, 12:43 PM

Aug 2020

question everything

(48,833 posts)

7. Emerson, college? See above?

Reply to still_one (Reply #5)

Sun Aug 30, 2020, 12:48 PM

Aug 2020

Emerson was before both Convention, 8/11. Trafalgar after the DNC, Aug 20. Will have to see after the RNC, too.

still_one

(96,555 posts)

8. That is from August 18. Meaningless because that was before the conventions, and other things that

Reply to question everything (Reply #7)

Sun Aug 30, 2020, 12:52 PM

Aug 2020

occurred since which you also noted

I want to see current polls, not 2 weeks ago

Here is averages

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/minnesota/

Still too much volatility, however, they are tightening, and the looting and fires that interjected themselves in the protests did not help us, and it didn’t matter that a lot of that was from right wing groups

When the Mayor came out to show support for the protest, and they asked him if he was for defunding the police he said he was for reform, and the lead protester told him to get the fuck out, was not good optics, and I suspect this kind of stuff is what is hurting us