Jon Ralston Early voting update 10/19/24

Last edited Mon Oct 21, 2024, 01:05 AM - Edit history (1)

It's late, blog mates, and it's been a long day, so I am going to do a quick post now with all the data. I will try to post a detailed chart every day with all of the information about votes cast, percentage of the electorate that has voted and is left and the partisan splits. It is a dense chart, and feel free to ignore it. I will post it at the end of every blog, and give you the highlights above it. To wit:

--We have no Clark mail yet, which almost surely will give the Democrats a big advantage in the biggest county. But for now, with every other county reporting., the Rs are ahead by 11,000 votes and 14 percentage points, 46-32. The Republicans won mail balloting by just a little (all those rurals offset a Democratic landslide in Washoe in mail) but by almost 2-to-1 in in-person voting, which was expected to happen (this was the pattern last cycle). When the Clark mail comes in, if it is not substantially to the Dems' advantage, that may be a warning beacon for them.

--Some of the rurals have pretty high early turnout when you combine mail and in-person. Nine of them are in double digits and a handful are approaching a fifth of their registered voters already. They may be cannibalizing in-person and Election Day voting, but it's too early to tell.

--So far non-major-party voter turnout is at 22 percent. The smaller that number is -- some thought it could get close to 30 percent -- the more the base votes for each party will matter.

--That's all for now because it's so late, but I will post the chart below. Let me know if you see anything that I missed and beware data entry errors at this late hour. Until I blog again...



https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-2024