Jon Ralston Early Voting Update 10/20/24

Nevada
D-1,347 (31%)
R-2,049 (48 %)
O-909 (21%)
Total--4,295

Combined Washoe early and mail so far:
D --12,165 (39.5%)
R--11,489 (37.3 %)
O--7,053 (23.5%)
Total--30,800

As for Clark, they had problems with their early voting file, which misled some and caused others to project inaccurately. Confidence-inspiring, too, but, I hope, just a glitch. SOS numbers I used earlier were theoretically accurate........

There have been multiple analysts who say the GOP mix of mail has more low-propensity voters, most of them conservative Republicans excited about the mix. But I take good data from either side, and it should not be discounted, even if the hype is.

I want to remind everyone that we are in uncharted territory here because while 2020 is the best comparison, it is not necessarily a completely apt one because of COVID and the first cycle with mostly mail ballots. Turnout patterns could be different, for instance. Election Day could be different.

We need more data to start drawing conclusions if we are seeing anomalies or trends. I have been told people are freaking out on Twitter in response to my posts, as they always do, but I blissfully do not see them. If a tweet falls in the forest and the person tweeted at is not looking, does it make a sound?



https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-2024