Jon Ralston's Early Voting Update 10/21/24

The headline: Republicans lead statewide in Nevada after three days of early voting and mail ballot counting. This has not happened in a presidential year in The Reid Machine Era, which encompasses the races since 2008. This could signal serious danger for the Dems and for Kamala Harris here.

It's pretty easy to explain: The Clark firewall has all but collapsed (it's 4,500 votes) and the rurals are way overperforming their share of the electorate with what has been tabulated, nearly by 4 points -- almost all taken from Clark's share. The large mail ballot lead enjoyed by Dems has been erased and more by the GOP lead in in-person early voting.

The Rs have a nearly 2-point turnout advantage, and nearly 250,000 votes have been cast. That's probably not too far from a fifth of the total vote.

It's too soon to call it a trend, but this was a huge day for Republicans in Nevada (they are ahead in Washoe now, too, erasing a deficit). A few more days like this, though, and the Democratic bedwetting will reach epic proportions.

Far from over, too early to call, lots of mail still to come, but if Dems don't build that Clark firewall...





https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-2024