Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 AM EST SUN NOV 6 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central Subtropical Atlantic:
Showers and thunderstorms have recently decreased in coverage in association with a well-defined low pressure area located several hundred miles east of Bermuda. If the shower and thunderstorm activity re-develops near the center, a short-lived tropical depression or storm is likely to form in the next day or so while the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward over the central Atlantic. The system is forecast to turn northward and northeastward and merge with a strong cold front by the middle of this week, and further development is not expected beyond that time. Additional information on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

2. Southwestern Atlantic:
A trough of low pressure located over the northeastern Caribbean Sea is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The trough is forecast to move northward over the southwestern Atlantic later today, where a broad area of low pressure is expected to form north of Hispaniola. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development, and a subtropical or tropical depression is likely to form early this week while the system moves generally westward to west-northwestward over the southwestern Atlantic. Regardless of development, there is an increasing risk of coastal flooding, gale-force winds, heavy rainfall, rough surf, and beach erosion along much of the southeastern United States coast, the Florida east coast, and portions of the central and northwestern Bahamas during the early to middle part of this week. The disturbance is also expected to bring locally heavy rainfall to Puerto Rico and theVirgin Islands this weekend. Interests in those areas should monitor the progress of this system.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at

https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Forecaster Bucci