Sitting governors have won reelection in 50 of their past 53 attempts. And while both parties have opportunities to elect new state leaders in 2016, Democrats’ best shots run through GOP governors seeking reelection in North Carolina and Indiana.



2. North Carolina (Republican Gov. Pat McCrory running for reelection)

After years of cajoling by state Democrats, Attorney General Roy Cooper will finally run for governor in 2016, challenging GOP Gov. Pat McCrory’s bid for a second term. Democrats believe that the Republican-controlled state government has drifted so far right that voters are ready to reject it. That record almost brought down former state House Speaker Thom Tillis’ Senate candidacy in 2014 — but, of course, he beat Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan, anyway. Democrats hope the story will be different in a presidential year.

Early polling has McCrory, saddled with mediocre job approval ratings, locked in a margin-of-error race with Cooper. McCrory also lost the first round of the cash race this summer, and Cooper has $3 million in his campaign account to McCrory's $2.4 million. As we mentioned above, it’s very difficult to knock out an incumbent governor. But McCrory also faces a brewing scandal over prison contracts he helped secure for a campaign donor. If that scandal develops further, it could turn into a rare fireable offense for voters.