How Tight Is Trump's Grip on the GOP? Take a Look at the Ohio Senate Primary

WELLINGTON, Ohio—For three decades, Rob Portman checked all the boxes of a classic pro-business Ohio Republican: Senior positions in both Bush White Houses. Twelve years in the House. A short stint as a lobbyist. A dozen years in the Senate. Until recently, Portman-style candidates typified the party in the state, fending off opposition from socially conservative or tea party activists. No more. With Mr. Portman retiring, the fight to succeed him revolves around one question only: Which flavor of Trump is best?

Five of the six contenders in next May’s GOP primary offer slightly different variations on the former president’s persona to voters—as well as to Mr. Trump himself. All have made pilgrimages to his South Florida estate seeking an endorsement. The lineup shows how former President Donald Trump has only enhanced his influence among Republicans in the eight months since he grudgingly left office, a few days before Mr. Portman said he wouldn’t seek re-election. The Ohio contest is one of a handful likely to determine control of the Senate, and what happens there could be a leading indicator of the viability of Trumpism without Mr. Trump on the ballot. The outcome will provide essential data points on Mr. Trump’s own decision about whether to run for president again in 2024 and what it will mean if he does.

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Ohio has been a presidential battleground for two decades, yet Mr. Trump won the state by more than 8 percentage points in both of his races. Ohio Republicans have won 16 of 17 statewide contests held during the past three midterm elections. Their single loss was to Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown, whose blue-collar, economic populism—which also appeals to many of Mr. Trump’s working-class supporters—is embraced by the front-runner for the Democratic nomination for Mr. Portman’s seat, Rep. Tim Ryan.

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In Ohio, investment banker Mike Gibbons pitches himself as the ultimate Trump delegate, leaning into his white, working-class upbringing to appeal to the core of the Trump political base. Josh Mandel, a former state treasurer, has adopted an aggressive social-media presence to match Mr. Trump’s and to reframe his 20 years in state politics for voters who prefer an antiestablishment candidate. Businessman Bernie Moreno draws parallels between private-sector business careers that paid off for both him and Mr. Trump. Jane Timken, a former state party chairwoman, promotes herself as a Trumpian field general whose years in the political trenches optimized her ability to build coalitions and win general elections.

And J.D. Vance, a venture capitalist and author, has positioned himself as the intellectual heart of Trumpism during repeated media appearances with two custodians of that mantle: Tucker Carlson of Fox News and the former Trump strategist Steve Bannon, who hosts a conservative podcast. The one exception is Matt Dolan, a state senator and former prosecutor, who entered the race Sept. 20 as a traditional pro-business candidate and not a Trump acolyte, prompting an immediate response from the ex-president.

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Though Mr. Trump hasn’t yet endorsed a candidate in Ohio, he told the Journal he is impressed by the “very good candidates in line with my thinking.” In his view, “The single biggest issue is the election fraud of 2020,” he added. There was no evidence of widespread fraud in the 2020 election.

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https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-tight-is-trumps-grip-on-the-gop-take-a-look-at-the-ohio-senate-primary-11633527050 (subscription)