Pennsylvania

Deminpenn

(16,303 posts) Thu Sep 19, 2024, 01:39 PM Sep 19

F&M Poll, Harris leads Trump 49-46

It's a similar finding to other recent polls. It was in the field a long time 9/4-9/15 so only 1/4 was post-debate.

Looking at the numbers, there was 1 odd finding that Harris was winning white voters overall, but losing to non-white voters.

Partisan ID, not equal to party registration, was 44% D, 44%R.

Here is the link to the poll data:
https://www.fandmpoll.org/content/files/2024/09/F-MPollSEP24_SummaryReport.pdf

5 replies

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F&M Poll, Harris leads Trump 49-46 (Original Post) Deminpenn Sep 19 OP

Polls. So suspect! Leading with white voters, but non white?? Hummm PortTack Sep 19 #1

This is a really good poll, they've been Deminpenn Sep 19 #2

Look down into the internals, see if you still think that unc70 Sep 19 #4

White v non-white seems almost reversed in voting unc70 Sep 19 #3

Yeah, they have a very good track record Wiz Imp Sep 19 #5

PortTack

(34,642 posts)

1. Polls. So suspect! Leading with white voters, but non white?? Hummm

Reply to Deminpenn (Original post)

Thu Sep 19, 2024, 01:53 PM

Sep 19

Deminpenn

(16,303 posts)

2. This is a really good poll, they've been

Reply to PortTack (Reply #1)

Thu Sep 19, 2024, 02:01 PM

Sep 19

surveying PA for decades and know it as well as anyone.

unc70

(6,325 posts)

4. Look down into the internals, see if you still think that

Reply to Deminpenn (Reply #2)

Thu Sep 19, 2024, 02:06 PM

Sep 19

I know they have a decent reputation, but it doesn't look consistent to me.

unc70

(6,325 posts)

3. White v non-white seems almost reversed in voting

Reply to Deminpenn (Original post)

Thu Sep 19, 2024, 02:02 PM

Sep 19

Harris carries whites, Trump carries non-white?! Same pattern for other contests. Something is seriously wrong with the internals of this poll. I don't have the time or energy to find the problems.

Wiz Imp

(1,788 posts)

5. Yeah, they have a very good track record

Reply to Deminpenn (Original post)

Thu Sep 19, 2024, 03:15 PM

Sep 19

But either they transposed the White vs Non-White numbers in their summary, or this whole poll should be ignored because it is 100% certain that Harris is not doing 16% better with white vs non-white voters and Trump is no way in hell doing 9% better with non-white vs white voters.

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