New Census Projections Show RI To Lose U.S. House Seat

Rhode Island is likely to lose one of its two U.S. House seats after the 2020 U.S. Census, according to projections by reapportionment guru Kimball W. Brace, who has for many years helped Rhode Island lawmakers draw both state legislative and congressional districts.

This comes as scant surprise to Rhode Island political insiders and the local gang of 500 that follows such news. House seats are based on population, while each state gets two senators, regardless of how many people live in a state.

The new census data cited by Brace shows that Rhode Island will lose the seat because the state’s population is fairly stagnant while other states in the sunbelt and west gain population, which translates to more seats and clout in the House.

Both of the Ocean State seats are held by Democrats – David Cicilline in the 1st District and James Langevin in the 2nd. Langevin has more seniority than Cicilline and serves on a committee that is of more importance to the state’s economy – House Armed Services. But the politics of having just one House lawmaker have not boiled off yet and won’t for a few more years. Either Cicilline or Langevin could decide against running again. Or they could face off in a primary. And Republicans could decide that a credible GOP candidate would have better chance statewide than in the individual districts. The 1st Congressional seat held by Cicilline is particularly Democratic leaning, running from Woonsocket, down the Blackstone Valley, through very blue Providence neighborhoods, including the East Side and South Side, and down the east border of Narragansett Bay to Newport.

Read more: http://ripr.org/post/new-census-projections-show-ri-lose-us-house-seat