Texas

TexasTowelie

(116,515 posts) Sun Sep 25, 2022, 12:11 PM Sep 2022

Beto O'Rourke shrugs off polling deficit, promises he won't let down Democrats in South Texas

by Patrick Svitek, Texas Tribune

Beto O’Rourke, the Democratic nominee for governor, said Saturday he was taking the latest polls putting him behind Gov. Greg Abbott by mid single digits with a “grain of salt.”

O’Rourke spoke for an hour Saturday with The New Yorker staff writer Lawrence Wright during the third day of The Texas Tribune Festival. His appearance came with less than two months until the November election, when he is challenging the Republican incumbent.

O’Rourke is currently behind Abbott by 7.5 percentage points in the RealClearPolitics polling average. A Spectrum News/Siena College survey released Wednesday found O’Rourke losing to Abbott, 50% to 43%, among likely voters.

Speaking with Wright, O’Rourke repeated the age-old political maxim that the only poll that matters is the one on Election Day. He also pointed out that in his blockbuster 2018 U.S. Senate race, he outperformed polls by finishing within 3 percentage points of Republican U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz.

Read more: https://www.texastribune.org/2022/09/24/beto-orourke-texas-tribune-festival/

7 replies

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Beto O'Rourke shrugs off polling deficit, promises he won't let down Democrats in South Texas (Original Post) TexasTowelie Sep 2022 OP

This is so disappointing Sucha NastyWoman Sep 2022 #1

That texas poll put women voters at 49% in crosstabs ColinC Sep 2022 #2

Roe will make a huge difference. Even many Republican women Meadowoak Sep 2022 #3

Yup. I think polls are showing a strong shift from key groups and women towards dems ColinC Sep 2022 #5

It feels like these polls are put out yo discourage us from voting kimbutgar Sep 2022 #4

I agree! Rebl2 Sep 2022 #7

The poll is of 'likely voters'. Those are the primary voters, the AndyS Sep 2022 #6

Sucha NastyWoman

(2,892 posts)

1. This is so disappointing

Reply to TexasTowelie (Original post)

Sun Sep 25, 2022, 01:34 PM

Sep 2022

I’m trying to figure a way it could be wrong.

ColinC

(10,534 posts)

2. That texas poll put women voters at 49% in crosstabs

Reply to Sucha NastyWoman (Reply #1)

Sun Sep 25, 2022, 02:02 PM

Sep 2022

They turned out at about 55% in 2020. Polls are going to be very, very wrong this year.

Meadowoak

(6,166 posts)

3. Roe will make a huge difference. Even many Republican women

Reply to ColinC (Reply #2)

Sun Sep 25, 2022, 02:26 PM

Sep 2022

Will vote democratic this time. Why do we pay any attention at all to polls? They are wrong much more than they are right.

ColinC

(10,534 posts)

5. Yup. I think polls are showing a strong shift from key groups and women towards dems

Reply to Meadowoak (Reply #3)

Sun Sep 25, 2022, 03:02 PM

Sep 2022

But pollsters are worried about being wrong so they are substantially reducing their inclusion in polls as an overcorrection from overestimating their turnout in November. It's almost like being right no longer matters to pollsters.

kimbutgar

(23,172 posts)

4. It feels like these polls are put out yo discourage us from voting

Reply to TexasTowelie (Original post)

Sun Sep 25, 2022, 02:50 PM

Sep 2022

If your candidate is down why waste your time voting attitude !

I’ll be voting as soon as I get my ballot.

Rebl2

(14,573 posts)

7. I agree!

Reply to kimbutgar (Reply #4)

Sun Sep 25, 2022, 07:21 PM

Sep 2022

I wish we were allowed to get advanced ballots to vote. We also have no drop boxes. Our state doesn’t allow either.

AndyS

(14,559 posts)

6. The poll is of 'likely voters'. Those are the primary voters, the

Reply to TexasTowelie (Original post)

Sun Sep 25, 2022, 03:41 PM

Sep 2022

true believers from both parties. People who have voted in more than one recent primary. There is a wild card this year: new voters who have just registered prior to THIS election. Having been to a number of women's rallies since Roe I'm quite sure there are a LOT of women, young and old as well as the men who love them that aren't in that poll. The gun regulation vote is also a wave issue this year and A-butt has royally fucked that one up.

Is the wild card enough? I don't know, it hasn't been in the past but I hold hope that is.

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