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SARose

(764 posts)
Thu Jun 27, 2024, 01:21 PM Jun 27

Donald Trump Hit by Shock Texas Poll

Donald Trump has a lead of just six points over Joe Biden in a head-to-head presidential matchup between the pair in the traditional Republican stronghold of Texas, according to a new survey.

The poll, conducted by The University of Texas at Tyler, gave Trump 46 percent of the vote and Biden 40 percent in a hypothetical presidential contest in which the rivals are the only candidates. A further six percent replied each of "someone else" and "don't know," while one percent declined to answer the question.

Snip
The University of Texas at Tyler surveyed 1,144 registered Texan voters between June 11 and 20. A subsample of 931 likely voters cut Trump's lead further to just five points in the Lone Star State, with the Republican firebrand having 48 percent of the vote against 43 percent for Biden.

However, Trump's performance with registered voters in Texas improved once independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the Libertarian Party's Chase Oliver and Green nominee Jill Stein were also included. In this scenario, Trump led by 46 percent against 38 percent for Biden, 12 percent for Kennedy Jr., three percent for Oliver and one percent for Stein.

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More

The first Texas poll I’ve seen in a while that references likely voters. I truly believe the “registered voters” polls are misleading.

Can we pick up both Texas and Florida?

🤞

11 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Donald Trump Hit by Shock Texas Poll (Original Post) SARose Jun 27 OP
so, Kennedy is drawing from Biden and helping Mr. Trump. damn riversedge Jun 27 #1
I call bullshit. I don't believe any Biden voter would consider Meadowoak Jun 27 #2
Nah. Jilly_in_VA Jun 27 #9
And the Tyler area is very red, not surprised they didn't do Austin. flying_wahini Jun 27 #3
This was a state wide poll SARose Jun 27 #6
"Firebrand"? Really? n/t Harker Jun 27 #4
Stop with the polls duckworth969 Jun 27 #5
Some conservative Texans prefer WormHead ... surprise, surprise /nt bucolic_frolic Jun 27 #7
I'm hoping browned-off right-wing voters decide Vogon_Glory Jun 27 #10
Texas will turn blue LetMyPeopleVote Jun 27 #8
The Postcards to Swing States postcard group thinks we are in play ... yellowdogintexas Jun 28 #11

Meadowoak

(5,926 posts)
2. I call bullshit. I don't believe any Biden voter would consider
Thu Jun 27, 2024, 01:28 PM
Jun 27

Voting for bat shit crazy Kennedy. Trump and Kennedy will battle it out for the bat shit vote. Period.

SARose

(764 posts)
6. This was a state wide poll
Thu Jun 27, 2024, 01:38 PM
Jun 27

Snip

Methodology

The UT-Tyler Poll is a statewide random sample of 1,144 registered voters conducted June 11 and 20. The mixed-mode sample includes 224 registered voters surveyed over the phone by the University of Texas at Tyler with support from ProMark Research and 920 registered voters randomly selected from Dynata’s panel of online respondents. The weighted margin of error for the sample of 1,144 registered voters in Texas is +/- 3.7 percentage points for a 95% confidence interval. A likely voter sample of 931 respondents reflects those who said they would “definitely vote” in November. The weighted margin of error for the likely voter sample is +/- 3.8%.

Snip

https://www.uttyler.edu/academics/colleges-schools/arts-sciences/departments/political-science/pollingcenter/

Vogon_Glory

(9,352 posts)
10. I'm hoping browned-off right-wing voters decide
Thu Jun 27, 2024, 05:07 PM
Jun 27

That while they still don’t like Democrats, that RFK Jr guy is a better choice than Donald John what’s-his-name.

yellowdogintexas

(22,634 posts)
11. The Postcards to Swing States postcard group thinks we are in play ...
Fri Jun 28, 2024, 02:00 AM
Jun 28

they have lists and gorgeous "Texas Votes" postcards.
The lists are comprised of SVDs (Seldom Voting Democrats) to nudge them to vote.

They are really pretty, and definitely will stand out in the mail

https://www.turnoutpac.org/postcards/

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