That did beat Obama’s 41 and 43%.

If the younger generation turns out it could be possible. But remember Texas has a recent history of trying to screw around with places to vote around colleges and democratic cities.

Another bonus this year is Colin Allred. I think he appeals to younger voters. He’s running against Cancun Cruz. I’ve seen several of his ads. I haven’t seen any Cruz ads.

The legislature is GOP because Texas has been gerrymandered to death. Some of the cities are in half a dozen districts. The Austin metro is in seven or eight of them, depending on who's counting.

In reality, Texas is much closer to even politically, though there's still a small edge to the GOP. If we could fix the turnout problem on the left (see my response below), we'd be right there.

Overturning Roe had a disastrous effect in Texas and Kamala gives one mean campaign speech on women's rights.

Why can't Kamala pull Alred along on her coat tails? Cruz can be beat, would be significant. I hope that Democrats pump some money into Texas.

That'll move the "Texas in play" situation along, nicely.

Mail-in voting is highly restricted: over 65, sick/disabled, out of the county for early voting and election day, giving birth within three weeks, or in jail. Everyone else votes in person.

Voter apathy and turnout are serious problems here in Texas. We're working on them, but they're a big challenge.

Texas is also a relatively young state, 3rd lowest median age in the country. Younger voters have lower turnout, of course.

Polls can be misleading for all of these reasons. "Likely voters" aren't as likely to vote as in most other states. The lower the turnout, the better it is for the GOP.

This article from 2018 is a good summary, and the circumstances haven't changed significantly since then, with the exception of further restrictions put in place by Abbott in 2020.

https://www.texastribune.org/2018/02/23/texas-voter-turnout-electorate-explainer/