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Yonnie3

(18,088 posts)
Fri Jul 16, 2021, 09:22 AM Jul 2021

Looking at the Virginia Health Department Covid contact tracing data this morning.

https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-data-insights/covid-19-contact-tracing/

I may be misunderstanding, but the data seems to show it is not going so well.

51.1 Percent of Cases Interviewed by VDH
43.6 Percent of Cases Who Provided Close Contacts
92.0 Percent of Contacts Interviewed by VDH

Stringing that all together, I calculate that there is a 20.5% chance that you will be contacted by them if you were in contact with a known positive. Factor in that there are an unknown number of asymptomatic and mildly symptomatic case that are not tested, it is actually even worse. I suppose some people who will not cooperate with VDH are informing their contacts, so maybe it is not quite so bad.

The vaccines were tested and tracked for the prevention of serious illness, not prevention of the infection. I read that in Israel they are doing rigorous contract tracing and testing of contacts and are saying the mRNA vaccine seems to be at about 65% effective in preventing infections.

I remain cautious in my interactions.
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Looking at the Virginia Health Department Covid contact tracing data this morning. (Original Post) Yonnie3 Jul 2021 OP
Saw that data out of Israel... breakthrough vaccines are not so rare. Last night's Sox-Yankees game JudyM Jul 2021 #1
I think the emphasis in the vaccine messaging has been misplaced Yonnie3 Jul 2021 #2
Agreed. It's almost a "let's party" message. JudyM Jul 2021 #4
I believe the CDC is tracking breakthroughs, just not reporting it! SheltieLover Jul 2021 #5
Totally, long-haul is a serious element in this picture. JudyM Jul 2021 #6
Absolutely! SheltieLover Jul 2021 #7
Virginia has data on breakthroughs Yonnie3 Jul 2021 #8
Ty! SheltieLover Jul 2021 #9
I still mask up inside anywhere other than home underpants Jul 2021 #3

JudyM

(29,517 posts)
1. Saw that data out of Israel... breakthrough vaccines are not so rare. Last night's Sox-Yankees game
Fri Jul 16, 2021, 09:46 AM
Jul 2021

was canned due to breakthrough infections, just one example. CDC’s only tracking those that result in hospitalizations.
Couple that with the New Zealand research showing that Delta is transmissible with mere “fleeting contact” and it seems we might be taking this too lightly. Maybe that’s why the surgeon general just called for an end to media misrepresentation about Covid. https://www.democraticunderground.com/10142769877

Haven’t found any research yet on whether breakthroughs increase with age but that’s likely, so how protected, actually, are vaccinated folks over 50/60/70 etc?

Thanks for posting this, Yonnie. Still wearing a mask, it ain’t over.

Yonnie3

(18,088 posts)
2. I think the emphasis in the vaccine messaging has been misplaced
Fri Jul 16, 2021, 10:21 AM
Jul 2021

The emphasis should be about not dying or getting seriously ill with lifelong repercussions. Instead a lot is about going without masks, opening the economy (it was never closed), getting your hair done, eating out, etc.

SheltieLover

(59,507 posts)
5. I believe the CDC is tracking breakthroughs, just not reporting it!
Fri Jul 16, 2021, 11:37 AM
Jul 2021


Israel is planning to start 3rd Pfizers to boost immunity in the elderly & others who are vulnerable.

Sadly, asymptomatic & mild cases can & often do result in long-haul.

Please be safe! 😷👍

JudyM

(29,517 posts)
6. Totally, long-haul is a serious element in this picture.
Fri Jul 16, 2021, 12:06 PM
Jul 2021

Truly remain stunned at so many people’s hubris.



Yonnie3

(18,088 posts)
8. Virginia has data on breakthroughs
Fri Jul 16, 2021, 01:57 PM
Jul 2021

Last edited Sat Jul 17, 2021, 05:40 PM - Edit history (1)

https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-data-insights/covid-19-cases-by-vaccination-status/

From January 21 through July 9
Breakthrough cases are 0.026% in fully vaccinated.
Deaths in fully vaccinated are 0.0004%
Hospitalization 0.0019% - this data is a bit uncertain

There may be a lot more asymptomatic or mild cases out there.




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