Virginia Politics

Virginia governor’s race a toss-up as Election Day nears, Post-Schar School poll finds

By Gregory S. Schneider, Laura Vozzella, Karina Elwood, Scott Clement and Emily Guskin
Today at 10:00 a.m. EDT

RICHMOND — Virginia’s race for governor is a toss-up as Tuesday’s election draws near, with 49 percent of likely voters favoring Democrat Terry McAuliffe and 48 percent favoring Republican Glenn Youngkin, according to a Washington Post-Schar School poll.

The result is little changed from last month, when a Post-Schar School poll measured the race at 50 percent McAuliffe-47 percent Youngkin — although the Democrat’s six percentage-point edge among all registered voters in September has narrowed to three points in the new poll, at 47 percent for McAuliffe to 44 percent for Youngkin.

Youngkin is fueled by an 18-point advantage among independent likely voters, up from an eight-point advantage last month — a significant swing in a group that could determine the election’s outcome. While Virginia does not register voters by party, 33 percent of voters in the poll identified themselves as independents. That compares with 34 percent who said they consider themselves Democrats and 27 percent who said they are Republicans.

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William Bishop contributed to this report.

By Gregory S. Schneider, Laura Vozzella, Karina Elwood, Scott Clement and Emily Guskin

Opinion: Here’s who has the edge in the Virginia governor race

By The Ranking Committee
Today at 9:00 a.m. EDT

You didn’t think you could get through a big, contested, nationally scrutinized election without hearing from the Post Pundit Power Ranking, did you?

The crew is back for one night only (until the next night only) to weigh in on the Virginia gubernatorial race between Democrat Terry McAuliffe and Republican Glenn Youngkin. It’s the most hotly watched contest since President Biden assumed office, and it could be the key to understanding what happens in next year’s nationwide congressional elections.

Our rankers were asked to rate the race as “Solid McAuliffe edge,” “Slight McAuliffe edge,” “Neck and neck,” “Slight Youngkin edge” or “Solid Youngkin edge.” But spoiler alert: There’s nothing “solid” about this election at all. Read on to see just how close the rankers think this thing’s going to be. — Drew Goins

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