Virginia's legislative contests may be the most important races in 2023

When Virginia Democrats didn’t lose a statewide election from 2012 through 2020, the conventional wisdom shifted toward viewing Virginia as an out-and-out blue state. But in 2021, the Old Dominion reaffirmed its purple bona fides when the GOP narrowly swept all three state offices — governor, lieutenant governor and attorney general — as well as the House of Delegates, the lower chamber of the state’s General Assembly. This left Democrats in control of only the state Senate — which wasn’t on the ballot in 2021 — where their small advantage stood as the main impediment to Republicans’ ability to implement their legislative priorities.

But this November, Republicans could capture the Senate in Virginia’s 2023 legislative midterm elections. If they can also hold onto the House, where they won a 52-to-48 seat majority in 2021, victory in the upper chamber would give them a “trifecta” — control of the governorship and both chambers in the state legislature — for the first time since 2013. GOP victories in Virginia could open the door to conservative initiatives, most notably Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s proposed 15-week abortion ban, which would reverse Virginia’s status as the last Southern state with lesser restrictions on abortion rights.

Looking ahead, Republicans will hope that Youngkin’s strong job approval rating and public concern about issues like education and public safety will boost their fortunes. Yet Democrats still have a decent shot at retaining the Senate, where Democrats hold a 22-to-18 seat advantage, and even winning back the House, despite President Biden’s weak approval rating. This is thanks in part to the electorate’s concerns about abortion, an issue that has troubled Republicans since the U.S. Supreme Court’s 2022 decision to overturn the constitutional right to an abortion in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization.

These state and national forces are also playing out on new legislative maps, which have helped precipitate a huge number of open-seat races in both chambers via legislators’ retirements and runs for higher office.

https://abcnews.go.com/538/virginias-legislative-contests-important-races-2023/story