VCU poll shows Trump ahead in Virginia as support for Biden wanes

The poll shows Sen. Tim Kaine (D) leading GOP rival Hung Cao by double digits and approval down for Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R), suggesting the problem is Biden.

By Gregory S. Schneider
July 15, 2024 at 7:09 p.m. EDT

RICHMOND — Former president Donald Trump leads President Biden in Virginia by three percentage points in a new Virginia Commonwealth University-Wilder School poll, but the numbers reflect an anemic showing for both candidates and a decline in Biden’s support instead of a surge in Trump’s.

The results, which are within the poll’s 4.8-point margin of error, show Biden dropping from the 42 percent support he enjoyed in the last VCU-Wilder poll, released in January, while Trump was unchanged at 39 percent.

The new poll was conducted between June 24 and July 3, so some of the results followed the June 27 presidential debate, when Biden’s faltering performance raised questions about his age and ability to handle the demands of the job.

A New York Times-Siena College poll conducted in Virginia July 9-12 showed the opposite result, with Biden leading Trump by three percentage points — 48 to 45 — among likely voters, though that result is also within the poll’s margin of error. Both polls are in line with other recent Virginia surveys that suggest a significant decline in support for Biden, who beat Trump in the state by 10 points in 2020.

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By Gregory S. Schneider
Greg Schneider covers Virginia from the Richmond bureau. He was The Washington Post's business editor for more than seven years, and before that served stints as deputy business editor, national security editor and technology editor. He has also covered aviation security, the auto industry and the defense industry for The Post. Twitter