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Joe Shlabotnik

(5,604 posts)
Mon Aug 3, 2015, 02:18 PM Aug 2015

NDP surges past Conservatives, Liberals in latest poll

Last edited Mon Aug 3, 2015, 06:05 PM - Edit history (1)

The New Democrats have surged to a double-digit lead in public support, gaining more distance over the other federal parties than they have at any time in the past two years, according to a new Forum Research poll.

About four in 10 Canadians surveyed (39 per cent) said they would cast their ballot for the NDP if an election were held today.

The Conservatives fell from neck-and-neck status with the NDP last week to 28 per cent of voter support Sunday, while the Liberals were steady at 25 per cent.

Projected onto an enlarged 338-seat House of Commons, the survey results indicate the NDP would command a solid minority of 160 seats — 10 short of a majority.


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http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2015/08/03/ndp-surges-past-conservatives-liberals-in-latest-poll.html

I guess the Harper bribe-bump was short lived.

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I hope this team can keep it up for a grueling 11 weeks.
12 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Fred Sanders

(23,946 posts)
1. Canada has 5 major federal parties and five different ways of thinking to vote for? Why not just keep it at two?
Mon Aug 3, 2015, 02:27 PM
Aug 2015

Spazito

(54,362 posts)
2. I hope so too...
Mon Aug 3, 2015, 02:28 PM
Aug 2015

I do think Mulcair and his team made a mistake in refusing to participate in any debate that doesn't include Harper. He should have said Harper doesn't get to control the debate agenda and agreed to participate in the consortium debate especially because Harper refuses to do so, imo.

I want the NDP to win. I hope Mulcair reverses his decision on this.

Saviolo

(3,321 posts)
4. I'm of two minds on this issue
Mon Aug 3, 2015, 02:40 PM
Aug 2015

Harper refusing to show up at debates initially looks childish and petulant. Especially from someone like Harper. I hate his policies, but he's a decent debater and certainly a shrewd campaigner, which makes him all the more dangerous.

But as I said, his original refusal to debate seemed childish. When Mulcair first said he wouldn't debate at any forum that Harper didn't attend, I felt like he was lowering himself to Harper's level, but a friend of mine put it in a different light for me. Mulcair's refusal to show up at a debate that Harper refuses to attend makes him look principled. If you think about it, Pierre Trudeau would never have attended a debate that Joe Clark didn't attend. Mulroney would never have come to a debate that Turner refused to show up at. So, that's a new way to look at it. Mulcair is taking a principled stance against the petulant child strategy of Harper, which now makes Harper seem obstructionist in addition to petulant.

Without too much work, Trudeau and Mulcair can both make Harper look like an idiot over this.

Spazito

(54,362 posts)
7. I see it as being too cautious in order to try and hold his lead...
Mon Aug 3, 2015, 04:07 PM
Aug 2015

Last edited Mon Aug 3, 2015, 05:05 PM - Edit history (1)

He didn't take any press questions yesterday and is closeted today and, from what I understand, the rest of the week until the debate Thursday, with his staff preparing for the debate. I think he needs to be front and center, answering questions, participating in debates that will be covered by television outlets.

His lead is soft, imo, and him being absent doesn't help. The Thursday debate isn't going to be televised nationally I believe and so the public will only get sound bites the media wants to show.

Canadians want change, the polls make that clear but are undecided whether to move to the NDP under Mulcair or to the Liberals under Trudeau.

Joe Shlabotnik

(5,604 posts)
5. Not sure about that one myself.
Mon Aug 3, 2015, 02:41 PM
Aug 2015

I tend to agree with you, and with conventional wisdom, that he should use every opportunity to get his message out there. However maybe his team is trying to show that he's going after Harper, and not fighting for the number 2 spot. It may be a risky strategy, and bad PR move at the moment, but then again maybe it'll be insignificant down the road.

Spazito

(54,362 posts)
8. Canadians don't know him that well, imo...
Mon Aug 3, 2015, 04:12 PM
Aug 2015

Part of his poll lead is based on the results of the Alberta election and is, therefore, soft. He needs to be out there with the same attitude he had in the House when he was devastating taking on Harper over Duffy and the Senate, imo.

He must not be too cautious, imo, as he will be seen as too scripted, too willing to play Harper's game instead of taking the lead.

laundry_queen

(8,646 posts)
9. I agree with what you've said 100%
Mon Aug 3, 2015, 05:12 PM
Aug 2015

In all your posts in this thread. I don't really have much more to add.

Spazito

(54,362 posts)
11. Thank you! I really, really want him to do well and turf Harper...
Mon Aug 3, 2015, 08:11 PM
Aug 2015

I want him gone so bad I can taste it.

Saviolo

(3,321 posts)
6. I guess the Harper bribe-bump was short lived.
Mon Aug 3, 2015, 02:45 PM
Aug 2015

Just like any windfall in politics.

Handing out cheques is like Rob Ford selling off crown land to make up a budget shortfall. It's not a long-term solution, and you can't do it all that often. Harper traded a lot of political capital by handing out actual capital to people. It was a cynical ploy, and I think it's going to end up back-firing. The timing was clumsy, it looks too much like he's literally trying to buy votes and Mulcair, Trudeau, and May can all beat him over the head with it.

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