Ontario health officials have revealed updated coronavirus modelling data that shows the province has already peaked in cases among community spread and numbers appear to be trending downwards towards a best case scenario.

“Projections now show Ontario’s COVID-19 outbreak behaving more like best case,” the report highlighted.

However, Brown said that while community spread of COVID-19 has peaked, cases in long-term care homes, retirement homes and any other congregate settings appear to continue to grow.

“We should all be proud that as a province we stepped up, we faced this enemy head on, we did not shy away from difficult decisions, we did the right thing, we listened to the experts and thanks to our collective efforts, thanks to all of you, we have so far avoided the worst case scenario that we were all dreading,” said Premier Doug Ford on Monday.

Now the cumulative cases for the span of the entire outbreak is less than 20,000, “substantially lower” than 80,000 cases previously predicted for the end of April and 300,000 cases for the end of the pandemic.

Matt Elliott
@GraphicMatt
You can actually see the curve start to flatten in Toronto ~15 days in, which would be around March 26. Bars/restaurants/closed March 17, emergency declared March 23, playgrounds closed March 25. Physical distancing appears to be working. Need to keep it up.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EWD5dWDWAAY3d-6?format=jpg