United Kingdom

muriel_volestrangler

(102,618 posts) Wed Jun 10, 2020, 06:16 AM Jun 2020

Most deaths AND worst hit to GDP in Europe - Johnson really screwed up Covid-19

UK economy likely to suffer worst Covid-19 damage, says OECD

Britain’s economy is likely to suffer the worst damage from the Covid-19 crisis of any country in the developed world, according to a report by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development.

A slump in the UK’s national income of 11.5% during 2020 will outstrip the falls in France, Italy, Spain and Germany, the Paris-based thinktank said.

Germany’s decline in national income (GDP) will be 6.6% this year while Spain’s GDP will fall by 11.1%, Italy’s by 11.3 and France’s by 11.4%.

Highlighting the task awaiting the UK government as it seeks to ease the lockdown, the OECD ruled out a V-shaped recovery for the global economy, saying the path back to previous levels of activity would be hampered by long-lasting effects of the pandemic.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jun/10/uk-economy-likely-to-suffer-worst-covid-19-damage-says-oecd

USA 7.3% drop, by the way; and Sweden 6.7%, for comparison with the most "laissez faire" approach.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

In deaths per million population, Belgium is the one sizeable country still with more than us (830 to 602), though their recording system is said to be more comprehensive than ours, so we may be worse than them. I also heard on Radio 4 this morning that Spain is now openly fiddling its death figures (it only counts as a covid-19 death if it's reported within 24 hours), so it is possible they are still worse than us. The UK has the most total deaths in Europe, anyway. It's even possible that the weekly deaths in the UK will soon be as many as the combined total for the EU now - the expert on Radio 4 thought they're about 25 a day fewer at the moment, but the EU figure is falling faster than the UK's.

3 replies

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Most deaths AND worst hit to GDP in Europe - Johnson really screwed up Covid-19 (Original Post) muriel_volestrangler Jun 2020 OP

BREXIT + COVID Economic Malaise no_hypocrisy Jun 2020 #1

And the Tories continue to refuse to get an extension for EU trade talks muriel_volestrangler Jun 2020 #2

The constant dithering about what the UK government strategy is has led to this, Denzil_DC Jun 2020 #3

no_hypocrisy

(49,038 posts)

1. BREXIT + COVID Economic Malaise

Reply to muriel_volestrangler (Original post)

Wed Jun 10, 2020, 06:22 AM

Jun 2020

EU states warn Brussels of hard Brexit risk to coronavirus plans

https://www.ft.com/content/497d9cc6-ed25-49c4-8032-ea6acbccd5ea?fbclid=IwAR3CYpRViEVwebMZV7Vd9KzsWhdpeidABCboiW3csTwEfQfEgsxoc8ZBwks

muriel_volestrangler

(102,618 posts)

2. And the Tories continue to refuse to get an extension for EU trade talks

Reply to no_hypocrisy (Reply #1)

Wed Jun 10, 2020, 06:47 AM

Jun 2020

despite this being the obvious thing to do, that pretty much all businesses and economists want, and quite understandable when the world's governments and economies have been sidetracked for months by covid:

The end of this month is the deadline - written into law via the Withdrawal Agreement Act that Mr Johnson's government triumphantly passed at the start of this year - to extend the transition period.

Currently the UK remains in the EU's single market trading arrangements, accepting free movement of people and the bloc's laws until 31 December, by which time the government aims to negotiate a trade deal.

We can extend that transition period for up to one or two years; but have to agree it this month.

https://news.sky.com/story/brexit-this-month-is-a-crucial-moment-if-the-uk-and-eu-are-to-agree-a-trade-deal-12003668

OECD warns of UK jobs hit with no EU deal or transition delay

Britain risks a big hit to trade and jobs if it cannot strike a post-Brexit deal with the European Union by the end of 2020 or fails to extend its current Brexit transition, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development said on Wednesday.

Risks around Britain's future relationship with the EU were compounding the uncertainty about the duration of COVID-19 restrictions on the economy, the OECD said.

"The failure to conclude a trade deal with the European Union by the end of 2020 or put in place alternative arrangements would have a strongly negative effect on trade and jobs," it said in an update of its global economic forecasts.

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/oecd-warns-uk-jobs-hit-103905310.html

Financial leaders back Brexit delay as they brace for recession

Across Europe, 83 percent of those polled also believe that Brexit should be postponed while the effects of the pandemic are dealt with. In the UK, more financial leaders believe that Brexit should be delayed for longer, with 32 percent stating negotiations should be delayed for more than a year – compared to just 31 percent and 21 percent in France and Germany respectively.

https://thefintechtimes.com/financial-leaders-back-brexit-delay-as-they-brace-for-recession/

British government reiterates opposition to delaying EU split

Boris Johnson’s government reiterated its opposition to extending trade talks with the European Union beyond the end of 2020, even as the deadlock in the negotiations increases the threat of a disruptive split.

“It would be crazy to extend it,” Cabinet Office minister Penny Mordaunt said in the House of Commons on Tuesday, repeatedly saying the government won’t delay Britain’s final break with the EU. “We want to conclude the negotiations to give people time to prepare for the end of the year.”

The U.K. and EU are due to hold a high-level summit about the talks later this month, where Johnson and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will discuss progress. The two sides are trying to thrash out a free-trade accord to replace Britain’s decades-long membership of the bloc, but talks have stalled over issues including fishing rights and the extent to which the U.K. will be bound by future rulings of EU courts.
...
But Mordaunt said it was important to give businesses certainty about the future and avoid further delays.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-09/extending-brexit-talks-would-be-crazy-u-k-minister-says

They don't want to "avoid further delays", you brain-dead twat; they keep telling you they want a successful negotiation, not a rushed failure with no agreement. The only thing they'll be able to prepare for at the end of the year is more recession, induced by a lack of trade deal with our major trading partners, and chaos (and possible violence) at the Irish border.

Denzil_DC

(8,001 posts)

3. The constant dithering about what the UK government strategy is has led to this,

Reply to muriel_volestrangler (Original post)

Wed Jun 10, 2020, 07:00 AM

Jun 2020

the worst of all outcomes.

At first, it was "herd immunity", and talk in Cabinet up to quite recently of "running it hot" - referring to both the rate of transmission and the economy. Given the Tories' donors' urgent desire to get what's left of the economy back up and earning as soon as possible and to hell with worries about sickness and death rates, it's a fair bet which focus of concern will win.

Johnson and his Cabinet and chief spad/boss weren't installed to cope with a crisis like this or even govern in any joined-up way - they were selected with the intention of coasting into as hard a Brexit as circumstances allowed.

At least it looks like they'll achieve that.

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