United Kingdom

Emrys

(8,109 posts) Mon Jul 19, 2021, 03:18 PM Jul 2021

COVID correction of the day

Link to tweet

Sir Patrick Vallance
@uksciencechief

Correcting a statistic I gave at the press conference today, 19 July. About 60% of hospitalisations from covid are not from double vaccinated people, rather 60% of hospitalisations from covid are currently from unvaccinated people.

FFS.

I avoid listening to anything Johnson says during these COVID briefings because (apart from the fact, like too many, he tends to conflate what's happening in England with what's happening in the UK as a whole) I end up feeling far less well informed after he's finished bloviating than I was before.

But when the UK government's Chief Scientific Adviser can't avoid reversing the facts on national telly, then only sees fit to correct himself - "Oops!" - on Twitter, it just adds to the general sense of despair and rudderlessness (as evidenced by the number of folks I've seen freaking out about this on that platform, along with those trying, with the best intentions, to rationalize his gross misstatement).

2 replies

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COVID correction of the day (Original Post) Emrys Jul 2021 OP

Do you have the figures of the breakdown for that 40%? What percentage are partially vaxxed, Celerity Jul 2021 #1

Others have asked; LBC, for figures up to 25 June, reckoned, for the Delta variant, muriel_volestrangler Jul 2021 #2

Celerity

(47,558 posts)

1. Do you have the figures of the breakdown for that 40%? What percentage are partially vaxxed,

Reply to Emrys (Original post)

Mon Jul 19, 2021, 03:42 PM

Jul 2021

and what percentage are fully vaxxed?

TIA

muriel_volestrangler

(102,872 posts)

2. Others have asked; LBC, for figures up to 25 June, reckoned, for the Delta variant,

Reply to Celerity (Reply #1)

Mon Jul 19, 2021, 04:14 PM

Jul 2021

Link to tweet

Who is actually being hospitalised with the Delta variant? Our analysis of latest PHE data (up to 25 June) shows that, in England:

73% were under the age of 50
63% were completely unvaccinated (of which 89% were under 50)
14% had had 1 jab
15% had had 2 jabs (of which 81% were over 50)

So that is 92%; 8% unknown?

LBC used 3 weeks after the jab as "vaccinated"; on 4th June, 75.7% of adults had had 1 jab, 52.1% 2.

So, combining the figures, a relative risk of hospitalization is:
unvaccinated: 63 / (100-75.7) = 2.6
1 dose: 14 / (75.7-52.1) = 0.6
2 doses: 15 / 52.1 = 0.3

or roughly: unvaccinated 9, 1 dose 2, 2 doses 1.

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