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What time will we know who won? Hour-by-hour guide to election night
All times are British Summer Time, of course - 5 hours ahead of Eastern. So polls close and the exit poll is published at 5pm in New York etc.:
10pm:
The exit poll
In the past five general elections, the margin of error has ranged between 1.5 and 7.5 seats. In 1992 and 2015, they predicted a hung parliament with the Tories as the largest party, but the Conservatives ended up with majorities on both occasions.
11pm:
Early results
Blyth and Ashington, and Houghton and Sunderland South, both in north-east England, are expected to be first at about 11.30pm on Thursday, and are forecast to be Labour holds.
Midnight to 3am:
A trickle of results
The quietest period of the night. About 85 seats are expected to be declared over the three hours, of which only a handful are on our list of “ones to watch” for upsets and bellwethers.
The first of those will come early in Basildon and Billericay in Essex, expected to declare at about 12.15am. The Tory party chair, Richard Holden, was controversially selected to run in the seat for his party after serving the last five years as MP for North West Durham, nearly 300 miles away.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/29/what-time-will-we-know-who-won-hour-by-hour-election-night-guide-2024
The exit poll
In the past five general elections, the margin of error has ranged between 1.5 and 7.5 seats. In 1992 and 2015, they predicted a hung parliament with the Tories as the largest party, but the Conservatives ended up with majorities on both occasions.
11pm:
Early results
Blyth and Ashington, and Houghton and Sunderland South, both in north-east England, are expected to be first at about 11.30pm on Thursday, and are forecast to be Labour holds.
Midnight to 3am:
A trickle of results
The quietest period of the night. About 85 seats are expected to be declared over the three hours, of which only a handful are on our list of “ones to watch” for upsets and bellwethers.
The first of those will come early in Basildon and Billericay in Essex, expected to declare at about 12.15am. The Tory party chair, Richard Holden, was controversially selected to run in the seat for his party after serving the last five years as MP for North West Durham, nearly 300 miles away.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/29/what-time-will-we-know-who-won-hour-by-hour-election-night-guide-2024
Holden's result may not be indicative either, because Tory supporters may stay at home thanks to his parachuting in. So it could be after 1am before we get a better idea if the exit poll is accurate.