United Kingdom

peppertree

(22,558 posts) Thu Jul 4, 2024, 05:48 PM Jul 4

Starmer set to be PM as Tories face worst defeat - exit poll

Labour is set to win a general election landslide with a majority of 170, according to an exit poll for the BBC, ITV and Sky.

If the forecast is accurate, Sir Keir Starmer will become prime minister with 410 Labour MPs – just short of Tony Blair's 1997 total.

The Conservatives are predicted to slump to 131 MPs, their lowest number ever.

The Liberal Democrats are projected to come third with 61 MPs. The Scottish National Party will see its number of MPs fall to 10, while Reform UK is forecast to get 13 MPs, according to the exit poll.

The Green Party of England and Wales is predicted to double its number of MPs to two and Plaid Cymru are set to get four MPs. Others are forecast to get 19 seats.

At: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cd1xnzlzz99o

Exit polls projections for today's general elections in the U.K.

If confirmed, the results would give Labour its strongest majority in history - though falling slightly short of its 418-seat victory in 1997.

Conservatives, in turn, would see their weakest showing in their 190-year history.

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Starmer set to be PM as Tories face worst defeat - exit poll (Original Post) peppertree Jul 4 OP

Must be lovely to have so many choices. efhmc Jul 4 #1

There would have been more had the UK used ... mwooldri Jul 4 #2

Hear, hear peppertree Jul 4 #3

John Curtice, part of the firm behind that exit poll, has some caveats Emrys Jul 4 #4

efhmc

(14,847 posts)

1. Must be lovely to have so many choices.

Reply to peppertree (Original post)

Thu Jul 4, 2024, 05:56 PM

Jul 4

mwooldri

(10,345 posts)

2. There would have been more had the UK used ...

Reply to efhmc (Reply #1)

Thu Jul 4, 2024, 07:09 PM

Jul 4

... a proportional representation voting system. Westminster elections use First Past The Post system. No Instant Runoff. Who gets the most votes wins.

peppertree

(22,558 posts)

3. Hear, hear

Reply to mwooldri (Reply #2)

Thu Jul 4, 2024, 07:32 PM

Jul 4

That unfortunate system did throw up one endearing creation though:

Emrys

(7,703 posts)

4. John Curtice, part of the firm behind that exit poll, has some caveats

Reply to peppertree (Original post)

Thu Jul 4, 2024, 07:50 PM

Jul 4

All from here: https://www.thenational.scot/news/24432047.john-curtice-issues-snp-reform-exit-poll-health-warning/

On Reform:

... he addressed the bombshell prediction that Reform, led by Farage ..., could become the fourth-largest party at Westminster, three seats ahead of the SNP.

Curtice said: “Basically what we have got in the exit poll is a lot of places where there is a small that Reform will win the seat, where we’re talking about 20-30% chance and we add up these probabilities and that’s how we get to the figure 13.

“But to be honest the figure could end up being quite a lot less than that, or indeed, rather more, depending on how the cookie crumbles.”

On the SNP and some startling predictions about Tory results in Scotland:

JOHN Curtice has issued a “health warning” to the exit poll that predicted the SNP could be reduced to fewer seats than Nigel Farage’s Reform.

The polling expert, who helped oversee the exit poll for the BBC, Sky and ITV, said researchers could have “underestimated” John Swinney’s party in their research which forecast the SNP to take just 10 seats.

Curtice, a professor at Strathclyde University, said it was possible that the SNP may perform better than expected against a resurgent Scottish Labour – but did not address concern the exit poll overstated Tory fortunes north of the Border.

Analysis of the exit poll conducted by ITV said the party would scoop up six seats from the SNP – a prospect Scottish Tory sources have reportedly dismissed.

"Dismissed" is putting it mildly. I've seen Tories quoted tonight saying that projections of their holds and some gains in Scotland are "bollocks", and that's among the more printable.

Speaking on the BBC, Curtice said: “It’s already been emphasised from the beginning of the night, inevitably we have fewer sampling points in Scotland than elsewhere.

“It does look as though the SNP have done particularly badly but remember there are lots of seats in Scotland which are marginal between Labour and the SNP and […] even if we’ve just underestimated relative to Labour by a little bit, then that SNP number will go up.”

We'll know for sure by tomorrow morning.

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