http://www.politics.co.uk/reference/nicola-blackwood

http://www.theyworkforyou.com/mp/24842/nicola_blackwood/oxford_west_and_abingdon

http://www.politics.co.uk/reference/nicola-blackwood

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nicola_Blackwood

Last edited Wed Apr 22, 2015, 03:19 PM - Edit history (1)

But do the Lib Dems stand much chance of taking the seat back? Especially given what's happened in the past 5 years.

The Tory candidate for North East Derbyshire where I am is forever banging on about how he's a "local boy". The only trouble with this is that until recently he was the Tory councillor for Maida Vale on Westminster Council. Westminster Council Tories are as much of an automatic no-no for me as Sheffield or Rotherham Labour. And by all accounts his record on Westminster Council wasn't very good either.

The Tories have been making more effort then usual this time around. But all the same, I really don't want them to win this seat as it's clear that their candidate Lee Rowley would be a terrible MP.

The LibDem candidate is in the local tradition of being on the left of the party; and there has been some reversal of the boundary changes that contributed to Blackwood's victory last time. But as you say the LDs have gone pretty much down the drain everywhere.

One thing that's rather noticeable is that the Labour and LibDem election posters here emphasize the party in large letters and the candidate's name in somewhat smaller letters, and have no pics, but the Tory posters (of which I'm glad to say I haven't seen many, but I live in the city of Oxford where there is much less Tory support than in the surrounding areas) include a big picture of Blackwood looking pretty, as though she is trying to make herself a celebrity on a personal level. Incidentally, all three main-party candidates are women.

There are also smaller parties in the mix: the Greens; UKIP; the Socialist Party of Great Britain; and interestingly a single-issue pro-NHS party.

'Westminster Council Tories are as much of an automatic no-no for me'

And you would be right there! Apart from the fact that pretty much ANY Tories are an automatic no-no, Westminster Council are exceptionally disgusting. While I never actually lived in Westminster, I lived not far away when Shirley Porter was Chair, and I don't think my digestion has quite recovered in nearly 30 years! Ugh! And from what I hear, they haven't improved as much as they might.

Last edited Sat Apr 25, 2015, 05:51 AM - Edit history (1)

Only seen a couple, but they do indeed have a picture of Lee Rowley's ugly mug on there.

I haven't come across any Labour posters where I live, but there are loads in Sheffield. Some emphasise the candidates name, some the Labour name. Also quite a few Green Party posters and a small number of Lib Dem posters in Sheffield.

I have to admit that I like the look of the NHA party, but they are not standing here. We have UKIP, Greens and an independent candidate though. The independent candidate seems nice enough but is standing on a very vague platform indeed.

Know him well as we were on the local Council together.

Left-wing (Socialist Campaign Group), ex-NUM leader. Hard-working local MP. Generally a good lad, despite his touching loyalty to fossil fuels.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ian_Lavery

The Skin

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steve_Brine

http://www.theyworkforyou.com/mp/24901/steve_brine/winchester

Not as awful as some, but I can guarantee I'll never vote for him.

Considered a moderate in the Tories given that she's pro-gay marriage. She has a 6,000 majority will likely hold on given that (a) she's reasonably well-liked and (b) Labour fielded a Progress candidate that lacks much political depth.

There is an outside chance that Chatham & Aylesford will go Labour, but it would need the kind of swing that would put Ed Miliband near to absolute majority territory nationally.

My thoughts on the candidates are as follows

The Tory candidate was poor. He just kept saying that we shouldn't vote for him if we want government to solve everything in answer to anything. I appreciate that it's difficult standing for the incumbent government party but all the same, the Tory candidate in 2010 was a lot better.

The UKIP candidate stood in 2010 and came across as a total fruitloop who was rather too reliant on quoting the UKIP manifesto verbatim. This time around he wasn't reliant on simply reading out the manifesto, and came across better for it. But all the same UKIP's platform is for too reliant on immigrant bashing with little else besides.

I had my suspicions that the Liberal Democrat was little more then a paper candidate and he proved this by not showing up. In his place was the Liberal Democrats East Midlands president, who said nothing of any real note during the debate.

The Green Party candidate was actually quite impressive. If he was a member of another party and didn't have a ponytail you could see him going places. But I personally still have issues about much of their platform.

There was an Independent candidate, and he was quite left wing. So much so that somebody from TUSC was attempting to woo him over to them after the hustings. He did talk some sense but I felt that there was also a certain element of what he said that wasn't always realistic.

And the Labour MP Natascha Engel also performed better then she did at the election hustings in 2010, but she still has a tendency to waffle, and my experience is that what she says she'll do at election time is not the same as what she actually does once elected.

So on the whole a much better hustings meeting then the one I attended at the last election. More relaxed, without candidates reading verbatim from their manifestos. I'm still not decided as to who I'll vote for though.

who basically says that his aim is to do as little as possible, and to reduce the activity of the organization that he wants to join.

If the Tory candidate's main point is that people 'shouldn't vote for him if we want government to solve everything in answer to anything', then why is he standing? No one expects government to solve EVERYTHING; but if his main point is that he doesn't want/expect government to solve things, then why is he trying to be an MP?


'The UKIP candidate stood in 2010 and came across as a total fruitloop who was rather too reliant on quoting the UKIP manifesto verbatim.'


Well, at least that means that he knew what was in it, unlike his party leader!

I think that the Tory candidate for North East Derbyshire is a total phoney who would be a very poor MP.

But all the same, the contrast between him and the Tory candidate from last time (who is now standing for a safe Tory seat in Sussex) is quite startling.

As it's your MP you'll be voting for, not the party leaders.

Not surprising, given the total LibDem collapse everywhere (Labour never had a chance in Oxford West and Abingdon), but nevertheless, ugh.

At least, Andrew Smith (Labour) increased his majority next door in Oxford East: a seat held by a Tory in the mid-80s, and now totally safe Labour, so that is good news.

Last edited Fri May 8, 2015, 11:41 AM - Edit history (2)

North East Derbyshire may have been Labour since 1935, but I do think that this constituency will go Conservative at some point. It's gentrifying and turning away from it's mining past into a commuter constituency.

Tories did clearly outspend Labour here, and Labour went backwards in many of the key marginals like Amber Valley that they lost in 2010.

Elsewhere Clegg hung on in Sheffield Hallam, and the seats locally where Labour faced a strong challenge from the Lib Dems are now rock solid Labour with the Lib Dems in 3rd or 4th.

Last edited Sun May 7, 2017, 04:17 PM - Edit history (2)

As the sitting MP, Natascha Engel is still the Labour candidate. She has since been elected deputy speaker of the house of commons. Apparently she is not popular with the local branch of Momentum, although as deputy speaker she can't be the sort of partisan warrior they would want her to be. And quite frankly she was never really a fire breathing partisan in the first place. Indeed her role as deputy speaker is one that seems a good fit for her.

Her Tory challenger is still ex Maida Vale councillor Lee Rowley, who is still a total phoney and a charlatan. Sadly, with Labour in it's current state, and with the Tories flinging resources at this constituency it's very difficult to see him losing. They only need a small swing from Labour, and they should get that just from the small town where I live.

Is there much change where you live?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brendan_O%27Hara

He came from nowhere (in historical party standing terms in this constituency) to win the seat with an 8,000-plus majority (44.3%) at the last election from three-term (and OK at a constituency level, but pretty useless in Parliament) Lib Dem Alan Reid (27.9%), who'd taken over the seat from another three-term Lib Dem in 2001.

O'Hara's been fine as far as I'm concerned. It's a tough call for any MP in this constituency, getting round a large, disparate and in parts rather remote area while maintaining a presence at Westminster.

The Tories were a distant third at the 2015 election, with 7,733 votes (14.9%) to Labour's fourth-placed 5,394 (10.4%).

The other parties have been slow to declare candidates, only Labour's Michael Kelly (who I've never seen or heard of before) standing against him so far.

His previous Lib Dem opponent Reid took the loss hard and has been fishing around for a political role at various levels since, and might have been in the running to contest his old seat, but he finally won an Argyll & Bute council seat in last week's election.

His previous Tory opponent, Alastair Redman (another who's been a regular contender for various roles in the area over the years), also won a seat in last week's election.

O'Hara's prospects depend on turnout, who decides to stand against him and who tactical voters decide has the best chance of defeating him.

In 2015, UKIP only got 1,311 votes (2.5%), so there's not much slack to gain from them for his future Tory opponent. The Lib Dems have historical strength in the constituency, but this seemed to evaporate at the last election, and there's been no sign of a resurgence at Scottish national level. They might be more likely Tory switchers, and possibly vice versa, but note that the Tories' total 2015 vote was less than O'Hara's majority over the Lib Dems with their sitting MP. It remains to be seen whether Labour voters would be willing to switch to Tory or Lib Dem in an effort to unseat him.

O'Hara was re-elected, but the Tories gained a lot of vote share to run second, at the expense of the Lib Dems who were a distant third. Labour came a slightly more distant but not disgraceful fourth - which is remarkable since their candidate didn't start campaigning at all till the last couple of weeks of the election due to prior commitments and had a habit of taking the huff in hustings and stomping out when challenged, on one occasion calling a would-be constituent a "fat bastard".

Ironically, the Corbyn effect might have helped the SNP in this constituency - Labour's vote held up, rather than defecting en masse to vote tactically (what sort of unreasoning hatred would make a Labour supporter envisage voting Tory, I can't imagine, but it looks like it happened elsewhere).

He's had something of a profile, at least for politics geeks, as the SNP's Shadow Spokesperson for Foreign Affairs.

His profile on the ground and in local media hasn't been particularly high, but he has had a vast constituency to cover, grown only larger after the Boundary Commission review which saw Argyll & Bute expanded to become Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber. He at least hasn't made any missteps.

The boundary change makes predictions based on past results more problematic, but what polling there's been so far has consistently ranked this as a safe seat for the SNP.

The only recent mail communication we've received from any party has been from the Lib Dems, with previous MP Alan Reid evidently still hankering over his old seat, which he was unceremoniously dumped from after the Lib Dems shored up Cameron's government. In the mean time, he's been an Argyll & Bute district councillor, which is probably a better match for what talents he has.

I don't know whether the Tories and Labour have even selected candidates yet. The Tory will almost certainly be one of the hoary, well-kent faces that make up the party D list of paper candidates for unlikely seats. Labour will be a little more interesting as they appear to have had problems getting candidates in Scotland, with the only recent announcements being apparatchiks being parachuted in to Highland seats from well south of the border and with scant if any connection with Scotland - not a good look even for paper candidates in no-chance constituencies. Their Glasgow by-election success a while back relied on activists been shipped up from England en masse to provide boots on the ground. That's a luxury they'll not be able to afford in a general election.

Last edited Mon May 8, 2017, 03:36 AM - Edit history (1)

Maybe she'll be out this time!

Very unusually, the Greens have pulled out and basically endorsed the LibDem candidate, who is the one person who could conceivably defeat Blockhead.

In Oxford East, Andrew Smith, the long-serving Labour MP, has retired, and Anneliese Dodds is seeking the seat.

Islington North is an extremely safe Labour seat.

Islington North Constituency

In the Brexit Referendum Islington went pretty heavily for Remain.

Islington Remain Vote

I would be very surprised if he looses his seat but his majority might drop because of Brexit. My guess is Keith Angus will make a slightly bigger tilt for the seat than your usual sacrificial lamb.

They are probably not going to make much of an electoral impact in North London.

My Labour MP has written a 4 page statement in favour of fracking locally and sent it to everyone in my postcode. This arrived through my letterbox inside a free glossy mag. It was the main topic of conversation at the pub quiz I attend, with people who are pro and anti-fracking being equally perplexed by the decision of the local MP to do this in the middle of a general election

https://nataschaengel.com/fracking/

This is of course in direct contradiction of Labour policy. In an area with considerable opposition to fracking, in a marginal seat and with the Tories clearly divided on the issue between local opposition and the national parties strong support for fracking.

And we have yet to see a proper general election leaflet from Labour!

Not good at all. As per the above posts I don't have a high opinion of the guy and he has made quite a few promises on local issues that he will find difficult to keep.

However, the outgoing Labour MP Natascha Engel fought a dreadful campaign. If the Tory campaign hadn't been so focused on Theresa May and if the local Tories had been given more responsibility then they might have won by more.

Turns out that he left a trail of anger behind him from his time at Westminster council with his fondness for parking charges but was clearly very keen on climbing the greasy pole.

Lots of videos of him on YouTube, not showing him in a good light....

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/parking-sends-very-sensible-people-mad-but-not-everyone-hates-the-new-evening-fees-6366744.html

I got "volunteered" to write to him on behalf of a local voluntary organisation and wrote him a very nice letter setting out the current political aims of the organisation.

The good news is that he replies to correspondence quickly and positively, which is a huge improvement on his predecessor.

The bad news is that his letter shows a glaring lack of attention to detail. And that could possibly turn out to be problematic down the line.

….that I fully expect Lee Rowley to retain North East Derbyshire. The Tories there are in a much stronger state than Labour, and I don't think much to their candidate for North East Derbyshire, who seems to think that people there haven't moved on from the coal mining era.

We now have Layla Moran! LibDem not Labour admittedly; but on the left of her party in the local tradition; and (very unusually) the Greens and National Health Action Party did not put up candidates, and campaigned for her.

Next door in East Oxford, Anneliese Dodds was comfortably elected as Labour MP, replacing Andrew Smith who had retired after 30 years.

Too bad that the BNP, I mean nominally Conservative, MP Philip Davies just held Shipley - it really looked for a while as though he was losing.

Brilliant news.

John Grogan (LABOUR GAIN FROM CON!)

Natascha Engel, having lost her seat to the Tories thanks in no small part to her bizarre decision to send a 4 page screed in favour of fracking to everyone in my postcode area is now working with INEOS, the firm who are looking to start fracking in my local area! I really hope that she isn't looking to run again as the Labour candidate round here.

https://www.derbyshiretimes.co.uk/news/fracking-firm-links-up-with-former-derbyshire-mp-to-provide-information-booklet-1-8888573

Natascha Engel has been appointed as the UK government's Commissioner for Shale Gas

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/natascha-engel-appointed-as-commissioner-for-shale-gas

I'm not in any way optimistic about Engel being independent or neutral and worry that she will simply be a cheerleader for fracking, and campaigners may easily dismiss her as such.

A fine man IMO

https://www.theyworkforyou.com/mp/10248/john_grogan/keighley

but I'm not a UK citizen. But the MP there is Hywel Williams (PC). He's OK as far as I know.

Nicola Blackwood, the Tory who lost the seat (Oxford West and Abingdon) to Layla Moran in 2017, has just been given a peerage. Not quite sure what for, but oh well.

Well... She still represents my family. I've been out of UK too long to vote and not a US citizen so can't vote here either.

Except for a short time, Guildford was a constituency where you could stick a blue rosette on a monkey and the monkey would win. Sadly the constituencies all around Guildford are the same way. Tory country

Since the last general election I have moved to Penistone and Stocksbridge (it's pronounced Pen-is-tun, so stop sniggering at the back!). It's a Labour / Tory marginal seat consisting of Sheffield's northernmost suburbs and the areas to the west of Barnsley. Held since it's creation by Angela Smith. Formerly a staunch Blairite, then Change UK, now a Liberal Democrat

http://angelasmithmp.co.uk/old/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Angela_Smith_(South_Yorkshire_politician)

https://www.theyworkforyou.com/mp/11814/angela_smith/penistone_and_stocksbridge
https://www.theyworkforyou.com/mp/11814/angela_smith/penistone_and_stocksbridge/votes

At this election she is moving on to contest Altringham and Sale against an ERG group Tory. So I will be having a new MP come what may. I doubt Francyne Johnson of Labour (via Momentum) will retain the seat if I'm honest. A lot will depend on how the Tory / Brexit pity party vote splits though.

Having been in the 21 kicked out of the Tories for voting to block No Deal, and then being in the 10 readmitted yesterday, he'd had a card printed, telling us what a conscientious local MP he'd been, blah, blah, blah, without mentioning the words "Conservative" or "independent" once. So now I know he must be standing; I presume the local party will take him back with no problems.

I will be deffo voting for her again

here is why

in great detail

https://www.democraticunderground.com/108817957#post26

Neighbouring constituencies's MPs include Labour MP Anneliese Dodds, who replaced Andrew Smith in Oxford East; and Robert Courts (or as I call him, Robert Courts-Disaster), the arch-Brexiteer Tory who replaced Cameron in Witney. Can't see either of them losing.

One good thing about our having such frequent elections lately is that it hasn't given the Tories time to put their gerrymandering plans into effect. They would like to change the constituency boundaries in a way that would probably ensure Layla Moran's defeat by a Tory, and have only one non-Tory seat out of the six constituencies in Oxfordshire. If that happens, I would probably be OK-ish personally, as I'd probably be one of those moved into Anneliese Dodds' constituency, rather than getting the Tory; but I still would prefer it not to happen!

Last edited Wed May 22, 2024, 02:17 PM - Edit history (1)

My local MP is Miriam Cates of the Conservative Party. She pays very little attention to constituency matters, but she is something of a right wing media darling and one of the leading lights of what passes for the religious right in mainland Britain.

She is vocally transphobic, in favour of banning phones for the under 16's and wanting more people to start families (but not seeming to understand the economic problems causing people not to start families) as well as being a staunch ally of Suella Braverman. Often her "culture wars" politics gives the impression of wanting to deny others the opportunities she's had in life.

I've said this before, but in my opinion Miriam Cates is the worst constituency MP I've ever had. There have been others such as Lee Rowley I have disagreed with more but who have been much better at the basics of representing a constituency.

Her main opponent is Labour's Marie Tidball. I expect to hear much more from her during the next few weeks. Already seen her campaigning on my road!

Please feel free to update us on your local MP, if the constituency where you live is likely to change hands and the prospective opponents of your MP!

Chandlers Ford has moved in the boundary changes from Winchester (where it had been since 2010) to Eastleigh (where it was before 1992). The Tory MP for Eastleigh has followed the part of the old constituency to the new Hamble Valley seat (probably a better chance for him). Eastleigh Borough Council is overwhelmingly Lib Dem, and they're running a borough councillor; the Tories are running a 30 year old bloke who looks like a 20 year old. I think the Lib Dems will take it (it was Lib Dem from the unfortunate and embarrassing death of Stephen Mulligan in 1994 to 2015), since I think the Brexit bonus for the Tories has withered away, and Chandlers Ford is all Lib Dem councillors already.

I'd link to https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_home.html but it seems to be down at the moment - overwhelmed?

For the record, I have worked with the Lib Dem candidate where I live on a number of local issues and he's somebody I have a good opinion of.

Labour and Lib Dems both had mixed fortunes locally at the last local elections, but the high tide for the Conservatives of 2019 has long since passed.

The seat local to me that I expect is to be difficult for Labour is Rother Valley. An old coal mining area that swung heavily to the Tories in the late 2010's, with a Tory MP who's well regarded locally and with Tory councillors still holding their seats this year.

I think the US Democratic Party could learn a thing or two about campaigning and governing from the Liberal Democrats. As the Lib Dems are a 3rd Party, they are resource constrained, often squeezed by both the Tories and Labour on policy, and frequently lose their deposits. But if you're in a target seat, you will have your door knocked on multiple times. Even if you live in the middle of nowhere in the Surrey Hills (I know, I was on my bike as a teen delivering leaflets in deep Tory territory).

However when they get in, they do well at the constituency and parish level. The local borough councillors are visible on Facebook to the community and also visible offline too! Once in, they don't care what your party is - if you got a problem and they can help and you want their help, they will help.

But that's just been my experience.

Where the US Dems can learn is to take the mindset of being a 3rd party in a deep red seat.... And campaign as if it is a target seat. But that's my opinion.

Marie Tidball was once Labour candidate in my constituency- voted LD against her for tactical reasons, but she seemed very good. Hope she beats Mad Miriam!

A lot of which is that people expect her to be a significant improvement on Cates when it comes to constituency matters.

Miriam Cates has earned herself a reputation as somebody who doesn't deal with most correspondence from constituents, doesn't interact with local councillors unless they are fellow Tories and only turns up to constituency events for publicity's sake.

Last edited Fri Jun 7, 2024, 07:59 AM - Edit history (1)

At an event I was helping to run. She seems nice enough. Doesn't give much away (something to be expected for a Labour parliamentary candidate or MP), although she didn't appear as well acquainted with local matters as I would have perhaps liked.

The first thing people in the media would be liable to talk about with her is her physical disabilities, which I imagine might irritate her.

If she does get in then this will be the third election in a row where the constituency I've been living in has changed hands!

And hope very much this continues (in 2019 she was almost the only non-Tory MP in England to increase their majority).

In many places, I'd be Labour; but voting LD here both for tactical reasons and because I like my MP.

https://www.theyworkforyou.com/mp/25689/layla_moran/oxford_west_and_abingdon

https://www.libdems.org.uk/layla-moran

We got moved from Guildford to the new constituency of Godalming and Ash. Jeremy Hunt (present Chancellor) is running there, Paul Follows (present leader on Waverley Borough Council) is the Lib Dem candidate against him. The area has typically been Cons vs Libs. There are candidates for Reform, Green, Women's Equality and Labour running.

The area has traditionally been Tory blue... with the Liberals and then Lib Dems doing well if the Tories are in trouble. I don't know how the boundary redraw has done... I could say we had a safe seat in Surrey South West and a safeish seat in Guildford for the Tories. Now the new Farnham and Bordon is probably okay Tory, but this time Godalming and Ash and Guildford are tossups. For my old neck of the woods, the future seems to be looking orange. Until Labour get in and the media make it look as if Labour fouled up in government... Then it will go blue again.

FWIW I have no vote in the UK. My folks will not be voting for Jeremy *unt. I hope Paul wins.

YouGov has Lib Dem 46%, Tory 29%; Savanta has Lib Dem 35%, Tory 31%.

The boundary changes and the swings against the Tories (big, certainly, but to who?) have made it very difficult for the MRP models - here are the ones for my own constituency, also heavily redrawn:

Electoral Calculus 20-27/5 LD 43.9% Con 25.7% Lab 14.2% Ref 12.6% Gr 2.7%
YouGov 24/5-1/6 LD 31% Con 33% Lab 19% Ref 10% Gr 5%
Survation 22/5-2/6 LD 31% Con 29.3% Lab 23.5% Ref 11.3% Gr 2.8%
Survation 31/5-13/6 LD 27.5% Con 29.5% Lab 23.6% Ref 12.5% Gr 5.8%
More in Common 22/5-17/6 LD 53% Con 31% Lab 9% Ref 4% Gr 2%
Savanta 7-18/6 LD 37.6% Con 28.1% Lab 19.8% Ref 12% Gr 2.4%
YouGov 11-18/6 LD 34% Con 29% Lab 14% Ref 16% Gr 5%

So that's varied from a Tory 2 point lead to a Lib Dem 22 point lead.

and maybe this sort of story will partially explain why:

I've written elsewhere on DU about how I feel this is the most difficult of elections to predict in Scotland, and this is another example of why. Such polls as there've been have varied wildly, but on top of that is blatant candidate-encouraged tactical voting like this on a scale the rest of the UK is unlikely to see.

The fact that this isn't just one "rogue" candidate mouthing off and spilling the beans on the doorstep, nor something new in Scottish politics, is borne out by this footage from 2022 of then MP (now Dame since January this year) Siobhain McDonagh boasting about how Labour and the Tories systematically connive up here:



It doesn't really chime with Labour's main message in Scotland that voters have to vote Labour to get the Tories out. In reality, the SNP was the runner-up to the Tories in all six currently held Tory Westminster seats in Scotland.

I'm still not won over by Marie Tidball, but she was about the only person in the constituency not taking the result for granted.

So Miriam Cates (among others) is no more!

Anyone else waking up to a new MP?

I kept a record of the MRP polls:

El Calc 20/5-27/5 LD 43.9% Con 25.7% Lab 14.2% Ref 12.6% Gr 2.7%
You Gov 24/5-01/6 LD 31.0% Con 33.0% Lab 19.0% Ref 10.0% Gr 5.0%
Survatn 22/5-02/6 LD 31.0% Con 29.3% Lab 23.5% Ref 11.3% Gr 2.8%
Survatn 31/5-13/6 LD 27.5% Con 29.5% Lab 23.6% Ref 12.5% Gr 5.8%
MoreCom 22/5-17/6 LD 53.0% Con 31.0% Lab 9.0% Ref 4.0% Gr 2.0%
Savanta 07/6-18/6 LD 37.6% Con 28.1% Lab 19.8% Ref 12% Gr 2.4%
You Gov 11/6-18/6 LD 34.0% Con 29.0% Lab 14.0% Ref 16.0% Gr 5.0%
Focldat 04/6-20/6 LD 33.0% Con 29.2% Lab 15.7% Ref 17.9% Gr 4%
We Thnk 30/5-24/6 LD 33.0% Con 29.2% Lab 22.6% Ref 10.8% Gr 3.7%
El Calc 14/6-24/6 LD 53.0% Con 19.0% Lab 9.0% Ref 15.0% Gr 3.0%
Survatn 15/6-27/6 LD 30.4% Con 30.8% Lab 23.5% Ref 10.2% Gr 3.9%
Focldat 10/6-01/7 LD 34.0% Con 29.0% Lab 17.0% Ref 17.0% Gr 4.0%
Survatn 15/6-01/7 LD 31.7% Con 29.2% Lab 25.3% Ref 9.1% Gr 3.6%
MoreCom 24/6-01/7 LD 41.3% Con 25.8% Lab 19.4% Ref 9.4% Gr 3.2%
You Gov 19/6-02/7 LD 37.0% Con 27.0% Lab 13.0% Ref 16.0% Gr 5.0%

Result: LD 33.7% Con 30.5% Lab 14.8% Ref 13.0% Gr 7.0%

So as recently as 27th June, one had the Tories possibly hanging on.

Congratulations to the Labour candidate's "internal polling" which claimed to me (in email), about a week ago,
Con 29.8% Lab 28.3% LD 22.9% Ref 13.5%

There are a few consolations, like my MP, Brendan O'Hara, holding his seat. Glad to see SNP Westminster leader Stephen Flynn also win, though how much impact they'll be able to make down there with such depleted numbers it's hard to tell. And the Tories taking a right old pasting UK-wide, of course, not least Scottish Tory leader Douglas Ross losing what was supposed to be a safe seat that fell to the SNP.

Doesn't bode well for you guys in the Scots Parliament elections.

Reform get all the headlines for winning 4 seats, but the Greens also won that amount with far less media attention.

Liberal Democrats also feasted on the rotting corpse of the Tory party. Having lived in Chelmsford in the 2000's, I'm as surprised as anyone that they've won that seat for starters!

Last edited Fri Jul 5, 2024, 09:36 AM - Edit history (1)

4 of them, plus Jeremy Corbyn for whom it's part of the reason for him getting kicked out of Labour. The only similar candidate I'd heard something about was Akhmed Yaqoob, who had done well in the West Midlands mayoral election, but he didn't quite displace the Labour MP in Birmingham Ladywood (Shabana Mahmood, now likely to be Justice Secretary - a top Labour MP). Galloway didn't get back in, I'm glad to say.

That disillusionment of Muslim voters will be something the Democrats in the USA will worry about.

It'll be run under our version of PR, for one thing, with a different franchise that includes 16-18-year-olds and legal residents who aren't British subjects.

It will be after two years of Labour being in power, so the ball's in their court to start to deliver on what promises they've made and for the electorate to see what their representatives actually do in terms of representing Scotland. Past form for Labour when it held vast numbers of seats in Scotland don't give much grounds for optimism, and the new intake includes a few who were rejected by the electorate in past UK elections.

And on the ballot will be initiatives by Scottish Governments over the years to mitigate some of the worst aspects of Tory austerity through mitigating such things as the two-child cap on benefits and the "rape clause", free prescriptions for all, free tuition in Scottish universities for inhabitants of Scotland and a whole number of things that Labour may decide are "unaffordable". And if rumblings come to fruition, Holyrood's powers may be eroded. We'll see how the polls shift, but support for independence still ran at around 50% in the most recent polls, and a substantial percentage of Labour voters even before this election supported it. If the other parties have refused to accept that any sort of majority in Scotland was a mandate for a referendum, it will be awkward (but predictable) if they now argue that a lack of a majority means there is no mandate or appetite.

Part of the problem is that the media and Labour deliberately fudged what are devolved powers and what are reserved to Westminster. Let's not forget that Scottish media have always been Labour-friendly and all but one newspaper and all of the TV and radio stations are SNP-hostile, though that hasn't been enough to fend off SNP sucesses in the past. During this election, Labour's Scottish leader Anas Sarwar even castigated the Scottish Government for policies his party supported in Holyrood! He'll have to decide on which side his bread is buttered. Maybe the media will even focus on calling him out for his hypocrisy, which they did begin to do belatedly in the later stages of this election, and he floundered horribly.

The Greens' gains are one of the silver linings for me from election night. I hope it's a foot (or several feet) in the door, because that trend for Reform getting more media attention than it deserves is likely to continue.

And through it all, turnout was poor across the country, and the polling shows that by far the main reason for voting Labour was to get the Tories out rather than approval of any of their policies. That was Labour's message in Scotland, and it obviously cut through because it was glib and exhaustingly repeated.

I could touch on other issues like the election happening when Scottish schools have already broken up for the summer, meaning that quite a few people had holidays scheduled, and there were widespread reports of postal vote forms not arriving. I don't know whether that would have had a significant effect on any outcomes as presumably its effects were not restricted to one party, but the UK Government were warned last year that it was going to be a problem, and they did nothing to address it, nor did Sunak seem at all concerned when he was asked about it during the campaign. That sort of thing shouldn't be an issue in the Holyrood election.

All the reactions I've seen from the SNP so far have been suitably humble and avoiding blaming the voters or trotting out any rationalizations that might actually be valid, but better addressed at another time, which is undoubtedly the wisest course at the moment.

Last edited Fri Jul 5, 2024, 10:12 AM - Edit history (1)

(it was only delclared around 7 a.m.)

Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber:

SNP: 15582 (34.7%, -9.4)
Conservative: 9350 (20.8%, -13.7)
Labour: 8585 (19.1%, +12.1)
Lib Dem: 7359 (16.4%, +2.3)
Reform UK: 3045 (6.8%, +6.7)
Independent: 941 (2.1%)

Although Brendan's percentage reduced, he actually increased his majority - seemingly because the vote was split more evenly among his rivals. Attempts at tactical anti-SNP voting would have been hampered by wildly contradictory polling in the run-up to the election (some had put this as a Tory gain, which might help explain their relatively strong showing, some with Reform gaining a mind-boggling vote share, which thankfully didn't pan out). Even if you added the Tory and Reform totals together, they still wouldn't beat him.

As predicted, my MP Layla Moran (Lib Dem, Oxford West and Abingdon) kept her seat comfortably, as did Anneliese Dodds (Labour, Oxford East).

More surprisingly, Labour won 'safe ' Tory Banbury, and the Lib Dems won 'safe' Tory seats in Henley; Didcot and Wantage; the new seat of Bicester and Woodstock; AND WITNEY- yes, the Tories lost David Cameron's old seat. His arch-Brexiteer successor, Robert Courts, or, as I call him, Robert Courts-Disaster, has finally courted his own disaster.

Not a single Oxfordshire seat remains in Tory hands. Even in 1997, 4 out of 6 seats had Tory MPs.