Which US Senate seat in 2022 will be the Democrats tipping point seat?

US Senate seats that the Democrats are strongly favored to win.
1/37)NY(Schumer-D)
2/38)CA(Padilla-D)
3/39)HI(Schatz-D)
4/40)VT(Welch-D)
5/41)MD(Van Hollen-D)
6/42)IL(Duckworth-D)
7/43)OR(Wyden-D)
8/44)CT(Blumenthal-D)
9/45)CO(Bennet-D)
10/46)WA(Murray-D)
US Senate seats that the Democrats win by a single digit margin.
11/47)AZ(Kelly-D)
12/48)NH(Hassan-D)
13/49)PA(Fetterman-D)
14/50)NV(Cortez Masto-D)
Democrats will remain in the majority with Manchin/Sinema.
Democrats guide to a majority without Manchin/Sinema.
15/51)GA(Warnock-D)
16/52)OH(Ryan-D)
17/53)WI(Barnes-D)