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nkpolitics1212

(8,617 posts) Mon Dec 5, 2022, 09:08 PM Dec 2022

2024 US Senate Election Prediction. Democrats trade WV and MT for TX.

WV is a solid Republican state. Trump carried WV by a 39 percent margin in 2020 and 42 percent margin in 2016. Republicans have plenty of top tier candidates(Jim Justice,Alex Mooney,Patrick Morrisey,or Mac Warner.)
MT is a likely Republican state. Trump carried MT by a 16 percent margin in 2020 and 20 percent in 2016. Republicans have plenty of top tier candidates(Ryan Zinke or Matt Rosendale)
Manchin-WV and Tester-MT are in states that are too Republican for them to win.
TX is a lean Republican state. Trump carried TX by a 6 percent margin in 2020 and 9 percent in 2016. TX is becoming less Republican than OH. Democrats have plenty of top tier candidates to give Cruz a race of his life.(Scott Kelly-D or Julian Castro-D) I picked Scott Kelly and Julian Castro because neither of them currently occupy any elected office like Joaquin Castro and Colin Allred whom are both currently serving in the US House.
Democrats will hold onto
OH(Brown-D)
AZ(Sinema-D or Gallego-D)
MI(Stabenow-D)
WI(Baldwin-D)
PA(Casey-D)
NV(Rosen-D)
VA(Kaine-D)
ME(King-I)
NJ(Menendez-D)
NM(Heinrich-D)
WA(Cantwell-D)
CT(Murphy-D)
MN(Klobuchar-D)
DE(Carper-D)
NY(Gillibrand-D)
MA(Warren-D)
CA(Schiff-D)
RI(Whitehouse-D)
MD(Cardin-D)
VT(Sanders-I)
HI(Hirono-D)

The must win states for Democrats is OH and TX. Both of these states are weak Republican seats unlike WV and MT.

Red state Democratic held US Senate seat.
MT(Tester-D)
OH(Brown-D)
WV(Manchin-D)

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2024 US Senate Election Prediction. Democrats trade WV and MT for TX. (Original Post) nkpolitics1212 Dec 2022 OP

Your prediction for Texas holds very little chance for coming true. TexasTowelie Dec 2022 #1

TexasTowelie

(115,252 posts)

1. Your prediction for Texas holds very little chance for coming true.

Reply to nkpolitics1212 (Original post)

Mon Dec 5, 2022, 09:31 PM

Dec 2022

As disgusting as Ted Cruz is, I don't see the GOP turning away from him and the GOP also did well in the mid-terms even though the events over the past two years should have at least made for some tight races which didn't happen.

Julian Castro is somewhat on the outs with the state Democratic party because they expected either Joaquin or Julian Castro to run for governor in 2018 and both declined. If either had been on the ticket it is possible that would have provided the boost that Beto needed to defeat Ted Cruz for senator. Julian's position on open borders with Mexico and prior service in the Obama administration won't fly with most Texans so he would almost definitely be defeated. Also, neither of the Castro brothers have much base support outside of the San Antonio area.

I actually had to look up the other person you mentioned, Scott Kelly, since I thought of his brother, Sen. Mark Kelly instead. While he has a great career, his lack of previous involvement in politics, lack of name recognition, and very weak ties to Texas overall eliminate him from serious consideration as a senatorial nominee.

As much as I would like for things to be different in Texas, currently there are no Democrats here that could be elected to a state-wide office--even the seat held by Ted Cruz.

ETA: When I looked up Scott Kelly, it said that his home is in Colorado.

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