Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member Latest Breaking News Editorials & Other Articles General Discussion The DU Lounge All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search

Stuart G

(38,726 posts)
Sun Apr 28, 2024, 09:55 PM Apr 2024

(A PREDICTION): If Donald Trump is the nominee, he will get no more than 35 percent of the vote.

I still think that 30% is right, but I am going to 35 to include all Republican voters,
Donald Trump is the single most evil candidate the Republicans will have ever nominated. He will NOT win, he is 'EVIL'... and everyone knows it. In my opinion it is that simple.

47 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
(A PREDICTION): If Donald Trump is the nominee, he will get no more than 35 percent of the vote. (Original Post) Stuart G Apr 2024 OP
"IF". And his replacement, Mitt Romeny will do no better. marble falls Apr 2024 #1
Mitt will never again be nominee Wednesdays Apr 2024 #38
The MAGAts are in their descendancy. Mitt is as close to a viable "moderate" candidate as it gets in the GOP ... marble falls Apr 2024 #44
You have more faith in the American people than I do. RandySF Apr 2024 #2
You don't have faith that the 7,000,000 more who voted for Biden will show up? Or believe that youth and women in ancianita Apr 2024 #14
I keep hearing that young men Tree Lady Apr 2024 #16
I don't think it's just about sex. RandySF Apr 2024 #17
I agree, I am closer to the older one Tree Lady Apr 2024 #19
There are jobs out there. Unemployment is at a 50-year low... brush Apr 2024 #31
I have an 18 year old son Ontheboundry Apr 2024 #30
More pedestrian than that. TSF has more entertainment value. no_hypocrisy Apr 2024 #33
In a normal/just world, maybe. Too much can happen before election for my confidence. Silent Type Apr 2024 #3
Yup, he's done. Not gone yet, but done. Joinfortmill Apr 2024 #4
RSO rso Apr 2024 #5
I don't share your optimism. Repubs are supercharged to vote for him. Most of the Haley voters will vote R. LonePirate Apr 2024 #6
This far out, unless you link something, I'm not buying it at all. That's corporate polling hype to spread FUD. ancianita Apr 2024 #11
been "mostly" black most of my life and I know ALL KINDS of people from the diaspora, LATINOS & Asians... The_REAL_Ecumenist Apr 2024 #24
"IF" What have I missed, is there another nominee? I hope you are right but 35% of the doc03 Apr 2024 #7
I must respectfully disagree. There is a very good chance trump could win. HUAJIAO Apr 2024 #8
Respectfully disagree with your disagreement. Go ahead. Make your case. Link your sources. Show us his path to electoral ancianita Apr 2024 #12
Well, Stuart G didn't provide any links, sources, which is fine. HUAJIAO Apr 2024 #20
Okay, fine. But I've posted voting numbers with links. So I go with his claim because the numbers support his claim. ancianita Apr 2024 #21
There's the raw truth... rubbersole Apr 2024 #23
Works for ME, Stuart! ancianita Apr 2024 #9
Only about 11 points off n/t Polybius Apr 2024 #28
You're right, however, It's not the popular vote that determines the winner, it's the electoral college. W T F Apr 2024 #10
So what's tsf's electoral path to victory? Pray tell. ancianita Apr 2024 #13
GA, MI, NV, & maybe PA or WI Polybius Apr 2024 #29
there's no way he takes mi. mopinko Apr 2024 #34
I'm just pointing out the path Polybius Apr 2024 #42
More like 43-46% though that depends on how many Trump cultists show up to actually vote. cstanleytech Apr 2024 #15
I agree, but ... CloudWatcher Apr 2024 #18
Do you really think they can even successfully march on DC at the end of this year? Really? ancianita Apr 2024 #26
holding the wh and taking it back- 2 very, very different things. mopinko Apr 2024 #35
Coup no2 would be an utter failure. drray23 Apr 2024 #37
From your lips to God's ears. nt SunSeeker Apr 2024 #22
Well, judging by the world today Pototan Apr 2024 #25
LOL Yup. nt SunSeeker Apr 2024 #45
Lol 35%? Polybius Apr 2024 #27
I agree Ontheboundry Apr 2024 #39
It's all about turnout and intensity on the margins. Who can fire-up more voters? Doodley Apr 2024 #32
40% is absolute tops. mopinko Apr 2024 #36
Only way Trump gets 30-35 is if Biden gets 35-40 Polybius Apr 2024 #43
Let this be a lesson for 2028 Polybius Nov 16 #47
I like your prediction, but will it matter if he starts a civil war? lark Apr 2024 #40
I hope that you are right but we still need to work on GOTV for President Biden LetMyPeopleVote Apr 2024 #41
I will hold to this prediction...Trump doesn't have a chance in hell. NOW HE IS A "CONVICTED FELON." Stuart G Jun 2024 #46

marble falls

(62,503 posts)
44. The MAGAts are in their descendancy. Mitt is as close to a viable "moderate" candidate as it gets in the GOP ...
Mon Apr 29, 2024, 12:41 PM
Apr 2024

... right now. The fact that Democrats have prevented MT Greene from challenging Johnson and replacing him shows MAGA is dying on the vine.

ancianita

(38,859 posts)
14. You don't have faith that the 7,000,000 more who voted for Biden will show up? Or believe that youth and women in
Sun Apr 28, 2024, 11:27 PM
Apr 2024

battlegrounds won't show up? Seriously?

Tree Lady

(12,205 posts)
16. I keep hearing that young men
Sun Apr 28, 2024, 11:42 PM
Apr 2024

are turning more conservative partly because they don't have girlfriends and are getting caught up in right thinking online because of not having sex. I wonder if there is any truth to that.

One of my grandsons 18 is leaning republican and the other 27 is already that way. Both are into some weird financial banking beliefs they read online.

Trying to talk to them its like I am 100 and not in their world view. Both are introverts and no girls in their life.

Tree Lady

(12,205 posts)
19. I agree, I am closer to the older one
Sun Apr 28, 2024, 11:48 PM
Apr 2024

but I can't seem to reach him. He's pretty depressed too feels like no way he will be able to afford being on his own. Stays with my ex his grandfather. Has a hard time staying at a job.

I think kids are expecting a lot from employment now.

brush

(58,016 posts)
31. There are jobs out there. Unemployment is at a 50-year low...
Mon Apr 29, 2024, 02:34 AM
Apr 2024

due to Biden/Dem policies/initiative/infrastructure jobs. What's up with your grandsons?

Too much cocooning on social media? Young people often meet the opposite sex at school or work. Don't they do either?

For centuries, decades our society has been geared to favor white men over women, POCs, LGBTQ+ folks etc., I don't get it. White males have advantages in the job market, which has traditionally led to advantages with women, or same sex, if so desired.

Ontheboundry

(302 posts)
30. I have an 18 year old son
Mon Apr 29, 2024, 02:33 AM
Apr 2024

His friends were over once and I overheard a discussion.on politics

They were almost all not just leaning right, some were straight up MAGA and all these kids are college kids but one, and he is goig air force first to avoid student debt.

So, I didn't want to argue but asked my son later and he answered quickly "everyone tells them that everything is their fault, so they are turning to the only place they can".

Sort of left me depressed. Even if not true, they feel it's true

Note, not all these boys are white , and as far as their sexuality I 'think' they were all straight or want to be

no_hypocrisy

(49,165 posts)
33. More pedestrian than that. TSF has more entertainment value.
Mon Apr 29, 2024, 03:49 AM
Apr 2024

To a significant demographic, Trump is more interesting to watch and listen to than Joe Biden. They want Trump back so there's something "good" to watch on television.

Wish I were wrong.

LonePirate

(13,917 posts)
6. I don't share your optimism. Repubs are supercharged to vote for him. Most of the Haley voters will vote R.
Sun Apr 28, 2024, 10:33 PM
Apr 2024

Dems, as improbable as it sounds, are somehow losing some Black and Hispanic voters to him. Young voters are exceptionally disillusioned due to student loans, Israel-Gaza, housing. Plus there is the specter of inflation every time someone goes to grocery shopping. People are not eager to vote Dem this year and the final results are going to be much closer than in 2020. We could even lose the EC again as much of a nightmare as that will be.

ancianita

(38,859 posts)
11. This far out, unless you link something, I'm not buying it at all. That's corporate polling hype to spread FUD.
Sun Apr 28, 2024, 11:23 PM
Apr 2024

The_REAL_Ecumenist

(889 posts)
24. been "mostly" black most of my life and I know ALL KINDS of people from the diaspora, LATINOS & Asians...
Mon Apr 29, 2024, 12:46 AM
Apr 2024

trust me, of the literally HUNDREDS of people of color I know, ONLY one, (the person I laughingly refer to as my brother) voted for republy-uglies. The idiot says it's because EVERY ELSE he works with , (he works as a "financial trader&quot does. Did I tell you he's an idiot?

doc03

(36,937 posts)
7. "IF" What have I missed, is there another nominee? I hope you are right but 35% of the
Sun Apr 28, 2024, 10:42 PM
Apr 2024

vote, really?

ancianita

(38,859 posts)
12. Respectfully disagree with your disagreement. Go ahead. Make your case. Link your sources. Show us his path to electoral
Sun Apr 28, 2024, 11:24 PM
Apr 2024

victory.

HUAJIAO

(2,672 posts)
20. Well, Stuart G didn't provide any links, sources, which is fine.
Sun Apr 28, 2024, 11:55 PM
Apr 2024

He's expressing his opinion/gut feeling. So am I.

I get my info by reading just about everything pertinent on DU as well as a number of other sources- albeit mostly liberal sources
I put it all together and form an opinion.



ancianita

(38,859 posts)
21. Okay, fine. But I've posted voting numbers with links. So I go with his claim because the numbers support his claim.
Mon Apr 29, 2024, 12:05 AM
Apr 2024

It's only fair that if you or others here disagree with him, you'd at least give one link to back up that tsf will win.
No one on DU has linked anything but corporate media polls around 6-8 months out. We're now 7 months out. I don't see how anyone can argue with him, given all the special election, public referenda and state trifecta wins we've had since 2018.



rubbersole

(8,695 posts)
23. There's the raw truth...
Mon Apr 29, 2024, 12:34 AM
Apr 2024

...all elections since 2018 have favored Dems or Dem causes. Polls have been consistently wrong for 5 years. They're virtually meaningless. Kansas on abortion access. Kansas. The hand wringing is unnecessary. But still get everyone you can to vote. Democracy will survive.

W T F

(1,170 posts)
10. You're right, however, It's not the popular vote that determines the winner, it's the electoral college.
Sun Apr 28, 2024, 11:23 PM
Apr 2024

ancianita

(38,859 posts)
13. So what's tsf's electoral path to victory? Pray tell.
Sun Apr 28, 2024, 11:25 PM
Apr 2024

Last edited Mon Apr 29, 2024, 12:10 AM - Edit history (1)

Polybius

(18,311 posts)
29. GA, MI, NV, & maybe PA or WI
Mon Apr 29, 2024, 01:33 AM
Apr 2024

That would do it, although I don't think (at this point) Trump will win. But he has a path.

mopinko

(71,942 posts)
34. there's no way he takes mi.
Mon Apr 29, 2024, 06:30 AM
Apr 2024

the whole govt there now is dem majority, and the mi gqp is in shambles.
he’s not taking wi or pa either. 22 was a blue wave there. that’s not gonna recede.

Polybius

(18,311 posts)
42. I'm just pointing out the path
Mon Apr 29, 2024, 11:43 AM
Apr 2024

I doubt he wins PA, but MI is another story. Democrats who are Muslim may stay home.

CloudWatcher

(1,933 posts)
18. I agree, but ...
Sun Apr 28, 2024, 11:47 PM
Apr 2024

I worry more about Coup Attempt Take 2. Unless the vote is absolutely crushing and obvious they'll assume they've been cheated -- again. Trump and Fox News have done more damage to our country than Putin could possibly have imagined.

ancianita

(38,859 posts)
26. Do you really think they can even successfully march on DC at the end of this year? Really?
Mon Apr 29, 2024, 01:05 AM
Apr 2024

It's good to worry. But they've always felt cheated. They don't care about governing, just their theocratic/authoritarian power.
Have some faith in Biden. If they lose, they won't obstruct the peaceful transfer of power this time.
This time there won't be a 2.0 except through legislative shenanigans and the courts.
No one's going to let them get close to Congress this time.

mopinko

(71,942 posts)
35. holding the wh and taking it back- 2 very, very different things.
Mon Apr 29, 2024, 06:32 AM
Apr 2024

there’s no fucking way he gets joe out of there unless he actually wins. which he sure as hell wont.

drray23

(8,002 posts)
37. Coup no2 would be an utter failure.
Mon Apr 29, 2024, 06:58 AM
Apr 2024

This time president Biden is at the white house. He won't let it happen like Trump did. The Capitol will be secured and if there is an hint of anything it will be promptly shutdown.

Pototan

(2,111 posts)
25. Well, judging by the world today
Mon Apr 29, 2024, 12:53 AM
Apr 2024

God's not doing too much listening.

I remember a religious friend once said to me, "The Lord answers every prayer. Unfortunately, more often than not, the answer is 'NO'"

Polybius

(18,311 posts)
27. Lol 35%?
Mon Apr 29, 2024, 01:26 AM
Apr 2024

He'll get at least 46%. I am bookmarking this. When I respond back in November, please respond to my "That one didn't age quite so well" comment.

mopinko

(71,942 posts)
36. 40% is absolute tops.
Mon Apr 29, 2024, 06:35 AM
Apr 2024

states w abortion referenda will bring out the faithful, but in every state so far, they’ve lost roughly 60-40.
but the full ticket? i agree, 30-35 is the best they will do.

Polybius

(18,311 posts)
43. Only way Trump gets 30-35 is if Biden gets 35-40
Mon Apr 29, 2024, 11:47 AM
Apr 2024

1) There's no way that Biden can win by 20 when even LBJ '64 and Reagan '84 didn't do it.
2) No way 3rd Party's do well enough to reduce anyone to the mid-30's.

lark

(24,330 posts)
40. I like your prediction, but will it matter if he starts a civil war?
Mon Apr 29, 2024, 10:18 AM
Apr 2024

He will not accept the loss easily, we all know that for sure. He will fight it hard and he could win if SCOTUS illegally backs him and we know this is extremely possible. What would happen then? Yes, I am a worrier and last week's horrible SCOTUS hearing just reinforced the idea that fascism is being promoted hard by the right wing and will do anything to gain total ascendancy.

Stuart G

(38,726 posts)
46. I will hold to this prediction...Trump doesn't have a chance in hell. NOW HE IS A "CONVICTED FELON."
Sat Jun 1, 2024, 05:54 PM
Jun 2024

Note the date on this prediction: April 28..........Today is June 1st

Latest Discussions»Issue Forums»Campaigns»(A PREDICTION): If Donald...