A Clinton win in South Dakota, where she’s leading by 6 percentage points so far, wouldn’t count as that big a shock. She narrowly led the only poll there. And she won South Dakota in 2008, even though Barack Obama won all the surrounding states.

But a win there would break the demographic patterns we’re used to seeing, since South Dakota is a predominantly white state that allows independents to vote in its primaries — similar to the states that have gone for Sanders.

Our demographic model had Sanders favored in South Dakota — although, note, it had Obama favored in South Dakota in 2008, so maybe there’s something about the demographics there that are hard to pick up.

One factor could be the Native American population, which is about 9 percent of the state’s population. But that doesn’t seem like a likely reason. Sanders is running well in counties that overlap with Native American reservations. And Sanders won Oklahoma, which also has a large Native American vote.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/june-7-new-jersey-california-primary-presidential-election-2016/

book_worm

(15,951 posts)

28. I think the native American population has a lot to do with HRC leading.

Reply to Her Sister (Reply #26)

Tue Jun 7, 2016, 08:51 PM

Jun 2016

BootinUp

(49,023 posts)

30. Yes, they usually go establishment Dem I think.

Reply to book_worm (Reply #28)

Tue Jun 7, 2016, 08:58 PM

Jun 2016

book_worm

(15,951 posts)

33. well it is an overwhelmingly white state

Reply to BootinUp (Reply #30)

Tue Jun 7, 2016, 09:01 PM

Jun 2016

and Bernie is losing it (so far) which is a surprise. But he did win a caucus!

book_worm

(15,951 posts)

27. Clinton leads by 7 points, with 56% reporting

Reply to book_worm (Original post)

Tue Jun 7, 2016, 08:50 PM

Jun 2016

book_worm

(15,951 posts)

29. Clinton leads by 7 points, with 59% reporting

Reply to book_worm (Original post)

Tue Jun 7, 2016, 08:57 PM

Jun 2016

Still waiting on Sioux Falls.

book_worm

(15,951 posts)

31. Looks like Benchmark is indicating HRC will win SD...

Reply to book_worm (Original post)

Tue Jun 7, 2016, 08:59 PM

Jun 2016

Looks like we will get SD quite wrong - but most others did too. No polling. Congrats Sabato! But we got deadshot accuracy on New Jersey.

https://twitter.com/benchmarkpol

spooky3

(36,204 posts)

32. great news! This will somewhat offset ND.

Reply to book_worm (Reply #31)

Tue Jun 7, 2016, 09:01 PM

Jun 2016

book_worm

(15,951 posts)

34. Benchmark is hedging a bit now...

Reply to book_worm (Original post)

Tue Jun 7, 2016, 09:04 PM

Jun 2016

No - no call on SD yet. Minnehaha could change everything. Clinton has a 90% shot at winning right now but I wouldn't call it yet.

book_worm

(15,951 posts)

35. Clinton leads by 7 points, with 62% reporting

Reply to book_worm (Original post)

Tue Jun 7, 2016, 09:05 PM

Jun 2016

Still waiting to make a call due to still a lot of the Sioux Falls vote being out.

book_worm

(15,951 posts)

36. A bit closer: Clinton leads by 6 points, with 65% reporting

Reply to book_worm (Original post)

Tue Jun 7, 2016, 09:07 PM

Jun 2016

book_worm

(15,951 posts)

37. More from Benchmark:

Reply to book_worm (Original post)

Tue Jun 7, 2016, 09:08 PM

Jun 2016

Only 1500 votes separate Clinton and Sanders in SD, and there are TONS out in Minnehaha. However, Sanders won't make up the gap at this rate

book_worm

(15,951 posts)

38. Clinton leads by 6 points, with 67% reporting

Reply to book_worm (Original post)

Tue Jun 7, 2016, 09:10 PM

Jun 2016

book_worm

(15,951 posts)

39. Again per Benchmark--playing it safe...

Reply to book_worm (Original post)

Tue Jun 7, 2016, 09:15 PM

Jun 2016

Benchmark Politics ‏@benchmarkpol 2m2 minutes ago
1) Sanders has a lot of rural counties only 50% in and 2) Minnehaha still isn't in enough to ensure a safe call.

book_worm

(15,951 posts)

40. Tightening a bit: Clinton leads by 5 points, with 68% reporting

Reply to book_worm (Original post)

Tue Jun 7, 2016, 09:18 PM

Jun 2016

book_worm

(15,951 posts)

41. Benchmark calls SD for HRC

Reply to book_worm (Original post)

Tue Jun 7, 2016, 09:21 PM

Jun 2016

https://twitter.com/benchmarkpol

book_worm

(15,951 posts)

42. Clinton leads by 5 points, with 71% reporting

Reply to book_worm (Original post)

Tue Jun 7, 2016, 09:25 PM

Jun 2016

book_worm

(15,951 posts)

43. Clinton leads by 3 points, or 1,011 votes, with 72% reporting.

Reply to book_worm (Original post)

Tue Jun 7, 2016, 09:30 PM

Jun 2016

Getting closer! Hope Benchmark is right about calling it for HRC.

book_worm

(15,951 posts)

44. Benchmark may have been premature...

Reply to book_worm (Original post)

Tue Jun 7, 2016, 09:32 PM

Jun 2016

Benchmark Politics ‏@benchmarkpol 2m2 minutes ago
Hmmm - Pennington County showed 46/47 precincts reporting. Didn't change precincts but added 1k votes. to Sanders in SD.

book_worm

(15,951 posts)

45. Clinton leads by 3 points, or 1,122 votes, with 74% reporting

Reply to book_worm (Original post)

Tue Jun 7, 2016, 09:35 PM

Jun 2016

book_worm

(15,951 posts)

46. Still looking good, but waiting for major news service to call it...

Reply to book_worm (Original post)

Tue Jun 7, 2016, 09:42 PM

Jun 2016

Clinton leads by 3 points, or 1,088 votes, with 75% reporting

book_worm

(15,951 posts)

47. Gaining a bit! Clinton leads by 3 points, or 1,272 votes, with 78% reporting

Reply to book_worm (Original post)

Tue Jun 7, 2016, 09:45 PM

Jun 2016

book_worm

(15,951 posts)

48. Still clinging to a 3-pt lead

Reply to book_worm (Original post)

Tue Jun 7, 2016, 10:01 PM

Jun 2016

Clinton leads by 3 points, or 1,088 votes, with 80% reporting

book_worm

(15,951 posts)

49. A little over half of Sioux Falls in and HRC maintainig a lead.

Reply to book_worm (Original post)

Tue Jun 7, 2016, 10:02 PM

Jun 2016

book_worm

(15,951 posts)

50. Clinton leads by 3 points, or 1,196 votes, with 82% reporting

Reply to book_worm (Original post)

Tue Jun 7, 2016, 10:05 PM

Jun 2016

LiberalFighter

(53,467 posts)

51. Then that is likely to end up 10 delegates a piece for them.

Reply to book_worm (Original post)

Tue Jun 7, 2016, 10:07 PM

Jun 2016

spooky3

(36,204 posts)

52. hang in there, HRC! Thanks for the updates, book_worm.

Reply to book_worm (Original post)

Tue Jun 7, 2016, 10:08 PM

Jun 2016

book_worm

(15,951 posts)

53. All of Sioux Falls is in--HRC won it

Reply to book_worm (Original post)

Tue Jun 7, 2016, 10:08 PM

Jun 2016

book_worm

(15,951 posts)

54. Per Benchmark:

Reply to book_worm (Reply #53)

Tue Jun 7, 2016, 10:09 PM

Jun 2016

Because of an error at the AP, Sanders strongest county went from 99% reporting to 33% reporting. He currently has a +500 margin there 1of2

spooky3

(36,204 posts)

59. thanks

Reply to book_worm (Reply #54)

Tue Jun 7, 2016, 10:22 PM

Jun 2016

book_worm

(15,951 posts)

55. Again per Benchmark:

Reply to book_worm (Original post)

Tue Jun 7, 2016, 10:12 PM

Jun 2016

Benchmark Politics ‏@benchmarkpol 3m3 minutes ago
Honestly - we would call South Dakota for Clinton but because AP revised numbers, SD numbers are extremely hard to trust right now.

spooky3

(36,204 posts)

60. thanks again - I hope she hangs on

Reply to book_worm (Reply #55)

Tue Jun 7, 2016, 10:24 PM

Jun 2016

I think Sanders will be more likely to quit if she is able to win SD and California. I know the delegate count in SD is irrelevant but I think it's an emotional thing with him - the more it looks like a sweep, the more likely he is going to be to see it's over.

book_worm

(15,951 posts)

56. Clinton leads by 3 points, or 1,406 votes, with 89% reporting.

Reply to book_worm (Original post)

Tue Jun 7, 2016, 10:19 PM

Jun 2016

I think HRC has this.

book_worm

(15,951 posts)

57. Clinton leads by 3 points, or 1,406 votes, with 90% reporting

Reply to book_worm (Original post)

Tue Jun 7, 2016, 10:20 PM

Jun 2016

spooky3

(36,204 posts)

58. I wonder why they haven't called it -- can the final few precincts be in Bernie-friendly places?

Reply to book_worm (Reply #57)

Tue Jun 7, 2016, 10:22 PM

Jun 2016

vdogg

(1,385 posts)

61. Benchmark politics retracted their call

Reply to spooky3 (Reply #58)

Tue Jun 7, 2016, 10:24 PM

Jun 2016

Sanders strongest county went from 99% reporting to 33%. There was some screw up by the AP. She probably still has SD but they have to reverify some stuff.

spooky3

(36,204 posts)

62. thanks

Reply to vdogg (Reply #61)

Tue Jun 7, 2016, 10:25 PM

Jun 2016

book_worm

(15,951 posts)

63. They really should call SD I think for HRC

Reply to book_worm (Original post)

Tue Jun 7, 2016, 10:28 PM

Jun 2016

Clinton leads by 3 points, or 1,457 votes, with 91% reporting

Number23

(24,544 posts)

64. How in the WORLD is she beating him in freaking SOUTH DAKOTA???!!

Reply to book_worm (Original post)

Tue Jun 7, 2016, 10:32 PM

Jun 2016

If ever there was a state with demographics that favored Sanders, you would have thought SD would be at the top of the pile.

She should have been happy/proud with a competitive LOSS in South Carolina but to actually be ahead??! It's unreal.