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Her Sister

(6,444 posts)
Wed Jul 13, 2016, 01:09 PM Jul 2016

Why Hillary Clinton Would Be Strong in 2016 (It’s Not Her Favorability Ratings) NateSilver 2012

By NATE SILVER DECEMBER 11, 2012 10:38 AM December 11, 2012 10:38 am
Let’s start by stating the obvious: Hillary Rodham Clinton would be a formidable presidential candidate in 2016.

Mrs. Clinton’s credentials as secretary of state, as a United States senator and as a politically engaged first lady would be hard for any of her Democratic or Republican rivals to match. She would have little trouble raising funds or garnering support from the Democratic officials, and she might even come close to clearing the Democratic field of serious opposition.

Mrs. Clinton made some tactical errors during the 2008 campaign — particularly, in her staff’s failure to understand the importance of contesting caucus states. But she improved considerably as a candidate over the course of the long primary, and the experience she gained would undoubtedly help her if she were to run again.

But if Mrs. Clinton runs for president in 2016, one thing is almost certain: she won’t be as popular as she is right now. Recent polls show that about 65 percent of Americans take a favorable view of Mrs. Clinton, while only about 30 percent have a negative one. Those are remarkably high numbers for a politician in an era when many public officials are distrusted or disliked.

But part of the reason for Mrs. Clinton’s high numbers is that, as secretary of state, she has remained largely above the partisan fray that characterizes elections and fights over domestic policy.

Over the course of her long career, the public’s views of Mrs. Clinton have shifted along with her public role. When she has been actively engaged in the hand-to-hand combat that characterizes election campaigns and battles in Congress, her favorability ratings have taken a hit, only to recover later.

Mrs. Clinton might be the most polled about American in history, other than those who have actually become president. Between the PollingReport.com database and other publicly available polling archives, I was able to identify about 500 high-quality telephone surveys that tested her favorability ratings with the public.

In the chart below, I’ve taken a moving average of Mrs. Clinton’s favorable and unfavorable ratings dating back to 1992. (The average is based on the 10 surveys that were conducted closest to the given date). The chart also highlights some of the most important moments of Mrs. Clinton’s career.

more in link: NYT: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/12/11/why-hillary-clinton-would-be-strong-in-2016-its-not-her-favorability-ratings/

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Why Hillary Clinton Would Be Strong in 2016 (It’s Not Her Favorability Ratings) NateSilver 2012 (Original Post) Her Sister Jul 2016 OP
Article written in 2012! Woah! Her Sister Jul 2016 #1
K&R.. Thank you! Cha Jul 2016 #2
This in a nutshell ... BlueMTexpat Jul 2016 #3
E.X.A.C.T.L.Y. !. Her Sister Jul 2016 #4

BlueMTexpat

(15,496 posts)
3. This in a nutshell ...
Thu Jul 14, 2016, 02:00 AM
Jul 2016
Over the course of her long career, the public’s views of Mrs. Clinton have shifted along with her public role. When she has been actively engaged in the hand-to-hand combat that characterizes election campaigns and battles in Congress, her favorability ratings have taken a hit, only to recover later.
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