Chartbook 218: "So far from god" ... friend-shoring and the debate in Washington over whether to bom

Chartbook 218: "So far from god" ... friend-shoring and the debate in Washington over whether to bomb Mexico.

ADAM TOOZE
JUN 3, 2023

. . .

~ snip ~

As far as the United States is concerned one immediately thinks of the North American region - what was once NAFTA and since 2020 has been rebadged as USMCA. Taken together, the USMCA is far and away the most important hub of US trade. It is indispensable for manufacturing systems, including first and foremost the North American motor vehicle complex. Here, surely, lies the core of a pacified economic zone. This has launched a debate about Mexico’s evolving role in global supply chains and its ability to take advantage of the opportunities opened up by decoupling from China.

Clearly, the USMCA is a case of near-shoring. But what about the politics? As far as Canada is concerned, the label of friend-shoring will do. But look to the South and your answer depends on how you judge the fraught relations between the US and Mexico. On top of chronic tensions over migration, in Washington right now there is a live debate about whether the next President should order the bombing of Mexico. Surreal as it may seem, a vocal part of the US political elite is contemplating the use of military force not just with regard to China, but with regard to the other main artery of US economic globalization as well. Freakish as this may seem, given the prominence of the figures involved, and the structures of underlying conflict, it would be dangerous to dismiss this as political theatre.

. . .

~ snip ~

In an ideal world of governmental fantasy, the United States, China and Mexico would identify the surge of drugs as a common global problem. They would cooperate to identify and interdict the drug producers and smugglers. Meanwhile, the US would introduce sweeping social reforms and public health policies to cut the demand for drugs, which is the ultimate source of the problem. The US would also introduce gun controls, suppress the legal trade in firearms and comprehensively control firearms exports. High-powered assault weapons and ammunition would no longer be freely available to the cartels to import to Mexico. Meanwhile, the Mexican state would rid itself of corruption, suppress the challenge to state authority from the cartels and embark on extensive economic development programs to provide alternative sources of income. Clearly, in 2023 we are very far from any such fantasy. Not only is geopolitical and political tension reducing cooperation but clashes over the narcotics crisis are raising political tension in a dangerous way.

It has not always been so. There were moments of Sino-American cooperation around Fentanyl suppression in the 2010s, but all counter-narcotics cooperation has been suspended by China since Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan. Likewise, Mexican American cooperation has been run down by the AMLO government which views the American DEA officers operating in Mexico as a fundamental intrusion on Mexico’s sovereignty. In the US, the structural factors that drive deaths of despair are as prevalent as ever. Comprehensive gun control has no chance in Congress. AMLO, though he has deployed the military in the drug wars, shows no sign of making a decisive breakthrough to reassert control. Increasingly, the best to be hoped for is to reduce the level of violence. This, however, not only perpetuates the disastrous situation in many communities in both Mexico and the United States. It also holds open the door to a further escalation in political tension between the United States and Mexico. This is exploited particularly by Republicans on the US side as a issue on which to demonstrate red-blooded all-Americanism and as a useful stick to beat Biden with. In so doing Republican trouble makers and ideologues reaching for the hammer with which America’s political elite often seeks to treat problems, one of America’s undisputed strong suits: military power.

***

When Trump was in the White House this impasse triggered wild speculation about US military strikes against Mexico. According to his Defense Secretary Esper, Trump in 2019 asked for options to use military force against the Mexican cartels unilaterally.

In opposition, the GOP has not calmed down. Inside Trump’s entourage they apparently consider the failure to launch strikes into Mexico as one of the missed opportunities of his Presidency. As Alexander Ward reported for Politico in April 2023:

" In recent weeks, Donald Trump has discussed sending “special forces” and using “cyber warfare” to target cartel leaders if he’s reelected president and, per Rolling Stone, asked for “battle plans” to strike Mexico. Reps. Dan Crenshaw (R-Texas) and Mike Waltz (R-Fla.) introduced a bill seeking authorization for the use of military force to “put us at war with the cartels.” Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) said he is open to sending U.S. troops into Mexico to target drug lords even without that nation’s permission. And lawmakers in both chambers have filed legislation to label some cartels as foreign terrorist organizations, a move supported by GOP presidential aspirants."

More:
https://adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-218-so-far-from-god-friend