Commentary: Destabilizing Mexico would make the US less safe and wealthy

By Shannon O’Neil, Bloomberg Opinion
The Tribune Content Agency
Updated January 30, 2025 1:24 AM

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A U.S. Army soldier monitors the U.S.-Mexico border in Eagle Pass, Texas, on Jan. 24, 2025. U.S. President Donald Trump ordered 1,500 more active military personnel to the border with Mexico as part of a flurry of steps to tackle immigration, his spokeswoman said on Jan. 22. (Charly Triballeau/AFP/Getty Images/TNS) CHARLY TRIBALLEAU/AFP TNS



President Donald Trump vows to remove millions of unauthorized migrants from the U.S. and stop new entrants at the border. Bringing back the punitive playbook from his first administration not only won't fix today's border challenges. It will further destabilize Mexico and exacerbate threats to both countries.

Congressional Republicans have taken the anti-immigrant cue, holding an early hearing bent on reviving restrictive border policies. The migrant Protection Protocols, colloquially known as "Remain in Mexico," forced asylum seekers to await their case hearing in Mexico.

Title 42 was even more ambitious in its exclusion, using the COVID-19 pandemic health emergency to expel migrants apprehended at the border. And yes, building the wall is back in vogue, albeit without talk of getting Mexico to pay for it. These policies missed the mark in terms of slowing or stopping unauthorized migration and hurt Mexico and the U.S. Under Remain in Mexico, tens of thousands of asylum seekers duly waited next door as their applications were processed, living in makeshift camps and shelters for weeks, months, even years along the border. The influx overwhelmed border towns and communities and attracted transnational criminal organizations, whose thugs assaulted, kidnapped and extorted migrants, forcing some to smuggle drugs into the U.S. And while Title 42 blocked more than 2.5 million border crossings between 2020 and 2023, it didn't stop migrants from coming. Indeed, during its first year in operation, border apprehensions between ports of entry nearly tripled, because the rapid, no-trace expulsion process encouraged migrants to keep trying to cross.

There is no reason these policies will work better the second time around. Adding now to the injury will be mass deportations. Roughly four out of every ten unauthorized migrants in the U.S. are from Mexico, potential targets for an aggressive round-up. Moreover, in perhaps a global first, Mexico has agreed to take in up to 30,000 deportees a month from other nations, a compromise the new administration could lean into and expand.

The influx of migrants passing through and being sent back across the border has been a boon to Mexico's cartels, which have banked billions from their smuggling and extortion rackets. With estimated earnings from preying on migrants ranging from $4 billion to $12 billion a year, revenues now may rival those from illegal drugs. Mass deportations will expand these opportunities. More desperate dislocated people mean more profits, which the gangs will use to expand their control of Mexico's territory and its politics. Greater resources also give them more capacity to arm themselves and bribe officials on both sides of the border, boosting their deadly trades in fentanyl and other drugs.

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