Economy

Rhiannon12866

(249,381 posts) Thu Dec 25, 2025, 02:23 AM 4 hrs ago

Justin Wolfers: Why the Media Gets the Economy--and the Market--Wrong - The 11th Hour - MS NOW

How can the U.S. post 4%+ growth, falling confidence, weak job creation, and surging inequality—all at the same time?

In this segment, economist Justin Wolfers helps unpack a set of economic numbers that seem to contradict each other and confuse everyone from TV anchors to investors.

He explains why the “first draft” of economic history is always messy, with thousands of indicators telling clashing stories, and why economists focus on the common thread rather than any single flashy number.

Wolfers contrasts headline GDP growth with the quieter GDI measure, which suggests far more modest progress, and cautions against drawing big conclusions from early, noisy data.

He also criticizes media hype around the U.S. stock market, pointing out that, relative to the rest of the world, American investors have actually underperformed despite eye‑catching returns.

The conversation closes with a look at policy choices—from tariffs to student loan wage garnishment—and what they reveal about whose side the economy is really on. - 12/24/2025.

Topics covered:
Why early economic data are the “first draft of history” and often misleading
How GDP and GDI can paint opposite pictures of growth
Why job creation may be lagging even when output looks strong
How a K‑shaped recovery lets the top 20% drive most consumer spending
Why buy-now-pay-later is a red flag for financial stress
How media fixation on the S&P 500 misses crucial global context
Why U.S. stock gains still count as underperformance versus world markets
How tariffs, deportations, and demographic trends undercut a pro‑growth story
Why garnishing wages from student loan defaulters hits the already desperate
How Australia’s income‑based student loan system avoids these pitfalls

If voters and policymakers only see the flattering numbers, they risk doubling down on policies that boost markets and the wealthy while deepening insecurity for everyone else.

Contents:
00:00 Confusing headlines: booming GDP, gloomy consumers
01:15 Wolfers on noisy, contradictory economic data
01:35 GDP vs. GDI: dueling measures of growth
02:10 Why this data is already “old news”
02:20 The K‑shaped economy and top‑heavy spending patterns
03:05 Buy-now-pay-later and household strain
04:15 Is this really a pro‑growth agenda?
04:30 Are strong output numbers just AI and productivity—or just noise?
04:50 Wolfers calls out stock‑market “economic illiteracy”
05:05 U.S. vs. world markets: the underperformance story
06:40 Student loan defaults and wage garnishment policy
07:00 What Australia gets right on student loans

🎯 Key takeaway: Single statistics can flatter, but a full‑picture economy check means looking at jobs, inequality, global benchmarks, and how policies treat those already on the edge.