Economy

Rhiannon12866

(253,210 posts) Tue Feb 24, 2026, 03:10 AM 11 hrs ago

Tariffs On Goods vs. Tariffs On Countries: Justin Wolfers Breaks Down The Crucial Difference - Justin Wolfers

What happens when a president tries to run tariff policy by executive whim—and the courts say no?

The Supreme Court ruling didn’t end tariffs, but it did end the idea that the president has “inherent” tariff powers. Tariffs exist because Congress grants authority, and the specific legal tool used for the earlier “Freedom Day” tariffs was ruled unconstitutional. The new 15% global tariff rests on a different statute—but that power is temporary.

This is why claims that the new tariff regime is “durable” don’t hold up. The authority being used is tied to a balance-of-payments emergency, it’s legally contested whether the U.S. even meets that standard, and it comes with a hard expiration: roughly 150 days. After that, Congress would need to reauthorize—right as midterm politics collide with tariffs that have weak public support.

The bigger change is structural: broad, country-by-country tariffs are much harder to sustain. The president still has narrower “vertical” authorities that target specific products—often tied to national security—so tariffs on steel and aluminum may persist while blanket tariffs on Canada, China, or Australia face serious legal limits.

Markets have noticed. Every time the tariff agenda escalates, markets drop; every time it eases or gets constrained by courts, markets rise. Investors are learning the pattern—even if the drama keeps repeating.

Stakes: Tariffs are a tax that can raise prices, disrupt supply chains, and hit jobs and investment—costs that end up landing on households and businesses. - 02/23/2026.

Topics covered:
Why the Supreme Court said the earlier tariff framework was unconstitutional
How Congress—not the president—ultimately controls tariff authority
Why the new 15% tariff may only last about 150 days
How midterm elections change the odds of reauthorization
The difference between tariffs on countries vs. tariffs on goods
Why steel and aluminum tariffs may survive while country tariffs fade
How markets react when tariffs escalate vs. retreat
What Australia should (and shouldn’t) expect from U.S. trade talks
Why “tariff leverage” misunderstands what trade is actually for

Contents:
0:00 The new 15% global tariff
0:35 Why “durable” is the wrong word
1:35 The 150-day clock—and Congress
2:20 Country tariffs vs. product tariffs
3:20 What markets are signaling
4:25 What comes after the temporary bridge
5:30 What this means for Australia
6:20 China talks and the myth of tariff leverage

🎯 Key takeaway: The courts didn’t kill tariffs—they forced tariff policy back where it belongs: through Congress, with real limits and real political costs.