Black Friday deals? If you didn't shop early there is good reason to wait

BY WILLY SHIH, OPINION CONTRIBUTOR — 11/26/21 08:00 AM EST

HE VIEWS EXPRESSED BY CONTRIBUTORS ARE THEIR OWN AND NOT THE VIEW OF THE HILL

Black Friday, the day after Thanksgiving, marks the traditional start of the holiday shopping season. But in a year of pervasive supply chain disruptions, we can expect to see higher prices, more competition for hot items, and probably a lot of late bargains. So, my shopping advice is kind of mixed, but keep some of that holiday shopping budget available for late arriving merchandise or sales.

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Which brings me to my next point. We are seeing a lot of reports about the record number of container ships stuck off the coast of California (over 90 in recent weeks). They used to all be anchored in San Pedro Bay, but now the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach have pushed them farther offshore to reduce pollution and congestion. Eventually, all of those containers, many filled with holiday season merchandise, will make it ashore and into distribution centers and stores. The hopes among merchants no doubt is that a lot of it will make it into stores before the holiday shopping season winds down, but inevitably a lot of it will not. Many items still have to make it by train or truck to the Midwest or East Coast

Late arriving goods will be a problem for retailers — but an opportunity for shoppers. This suggests that there will be a lot of availability right before Christmas, and probably even more in January. So contrary to the advice of many (who have an interest in getting you to shop early and therefore often), if you can be flexible and like good deals, my contrarian advice is not to spend it all today. There might be some great late-breaking sales down the road.

Willy C. Shih is the Robert and Jane Cizik professor of management practice at the Harvard Business School. His research focuses on global manufacturing and supply chains. Follow him on Twitter: @WillyShih_atHBS