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Q4 GDP preview: Economists look for growth acceleration before Omicron impact

Emily McCormick • Reporter
Wed, January 26, 2022, 2:29 PM

U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) likely ramped up in the final months of 2021, with still-solid consumer spending helping stoke growth and offset early negative impacts from the Omicron variant's spread.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis is set to release its first estimate of fourth-quarter GDP on Thursday. Here are the main metrics economists expect from the print, based on consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg:

• GDP quarter-over-quarter, annualized: 5.5% expected, 2.3% in Q3

• Personal consumption: 3.3% expected, 2.0% in Q3

• Core personal consumption expenditures, quarter-over-quarter: 4.9% expected, 4.6% in Q3

Growth in the fourth quarter is expected to rebound from the third quarter's disappointing rate of expansion, when GDP rose at a 2.3% annualized rate — its slowest since mid-2020.

A jump in consumer spending during this year's record holiday shopping season is set to contribute heavily to the headline gain. As consumers attempted to get ahead of supply chain delays and out-of-stocks, spending was pulled forward from the typical holiday period of November and December to October. This helped to lift overall fourth-quarter consumption for the final three months of the year, even as retail sales in December pulled back on a month-over-month basis.

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