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January jobs report preview: Payroll growth set to slow as Omicron dents recovery
Tomorrow's news today
Why wait until 8:30 tomorrow morning when you can all about it 16 hours ahead of time?
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January jobs report preview: Payroll growth set to slow as Omicron dents recovery
Emily McCormick · Reporter
Thu, February 3, 2022, 1:50 PM · 5 min read
U.S. job growth likely slowed further in January as Omicron cases surged at the beginning of the new year and at least temporarily weighed on the labor market's recovery.
The Labor Department is set to release its January jobs report Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET. Here are the main metrics expected from the print, compared to consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg:
• Non-farm payrolls: 150,000 expected, 199,000 in December
• Unemployment rate: 3.9% expected, 3.9% in December
• Average hourly earnings, month-over-month: 0.5% expected, 0.6% in December
• Average hourly earnings, year-over-year: 5.2% expected, 4.7% in December
The January jobs report is set to be the first to reflect a fuller impact from the Omicron variant. The highly contagious variant first discovered in the U.S. in late November had only just begun to spread by the time of the December jobs report survey period. Around the time of the January survey period in the middle of the month, new daily COVID-19 cases in the U.S. had soared to a record.
The renewed jump in COVID-19 cases is likely to weigh especially heavily on the high-contact services sector, which has remained exceptionally vulnerable to rising infections levels.
"Job losses in leisure and hospitality and health care may drag down overall payroll employment," Daniel Zhao, Glassdoor senior economist, wrote in a note Thursday. "While other COVID-sensitive sectors like education and retail may be impacted, seasonal factors may also help mute job losses in those sectors."
Estimates for the headline January print on non-farm payrolls have run the gamut as top Wall Street economists attempt to predict the latest virus-related speed bump to the labor market's recovery. At the high end, several economists polled by Bloomberg expected 250,000 jobs to return in January. However, a number of pundits also saw job growth turning negative for the first time since December 2020, with at least one economist forecasting a drop of 400,000 payrolls for January.
{snip}
January jobs report preview: Payroll growth set to slow as Omicron dents recovery
Emily McCormick · Reporter
Thu, February 3, 2022, 1:50 PM · 5 min read
U.S. job growth likely slowed further in January as Omicron cases surged at the beginning of the new year and at least temporarily weighed on the labor market's recovery.
The Labor Department is set to release its January jobs report Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET. Here are the main metrics expected from the print, compared to consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg:
• Non-farm payrolls: 150,000 expected, 199,000 in December
• Unemployment rate: 3.9% expected, 3.9% in December
• Average hourly earnings, month-over-month: 0.5% expected, 0.6% in December
• Average hourly earnings, year-over-year: 5.2% expected, 4.7% in December
The January jobs report is set to be the first to reflect a fuller impact from the Omicron variant. The highly contagious variant first discovered in the U.S. in late November had only just begun to spread by the time of the December jobs report survey period. Around the time of the January survey period in the middle of the month, new daily COVID-19 cases in the U.S. had soared to a record.
The renewed jump in COVID-19 cases is likely to weigh especially heavily on the high-contact services sector, which has remained exceptionally vulnerable to rising infections levels.
"Job losses in leisure and hospitality and health care may drag down overall payroll employment," Daniel Zhao, Glassdoor senior economist, wrote in a note Thursday. "While other COVID-sensitive sectors like education and retail may be impacted, seasonal factors may also help mute job losses in those sectors."
Estimates for the headline January print on non-farm payrolls have run the gamut as top Wall Street economists attempt to predict the latest virus-related speed bump to the labor market's recovery. At the high end, several economists polled by Bloomberg expected 250,000 jobs to return in January. However, a number of pundits also saw job growth turning negative for the first time since December 2020, with at least one economist forecasting a drop of 400,000 payrolls for January.
{snip}