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The economic toll if Biden is right and Putin invades Ukraine

Rick Newman · Senior Columnist
Fri, February 18, 2022, 5:34 PM

Markets will have a major lump to swallow if Russia president Vladimir Putin chooses to invade Ukraine in coming days, as President Biden said he expects.

"At this moment, I'm convinced he's made the decision," Biden said in a brief address from the White House on Feb. 18. When a reporter pressed on whether he expected Russia to invade, Biden said "yes."

Geopolitical scares typically produce very short-lived market disruptions, with commodities and risk assets quick to recover. The standoff between Russia and Ukraine could be different. If Russia goes big, it could quickly subdue Kyiv, the nation’s capital, oust the democratically elected government and return the country to de facto Russian rule.

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