So let's enlarge the data. It's been pointed out by some "experts" that 1) covid's effect on the economy is now longer than the OPEC oil embargo of 73-74. And that economy didn't recover until 1976, and the bulk of the resulting inflation was in the late 1970s and 1980, almost 6-7 years later.

2) The Fed has really expanded the economy for 12 years now, has no place to hide or retreat from, and valuations are at all time highs. In my view the Fed should have acted almost a year ago to raise interest rates.

3) Earnings are in retreat, especially in high tech, due to the leveraged balance sheets and faltering consumer spending.

4) Stock markets were very good in 1976-79. Cyclicals, energy performed well. Value stocks too.

5) There was no Chinese or Russian markets to deal with back then. And the low of the markets in August 1982 were the windup of 14 years of deficits from the Vietnam War and energy imbalances. Sort of echo of today.

So it's possible this will be a series of giant hiccups and things will proceed apace for awhile yet, then crash, then find its footing. We think of crash as 1929, but great crashes happen infrequently. 2009 was such, but instead of a financial cleansing, they pumped money into it, and QE1-2-3-4 pulled growth from the future to pay for today. Is there always a reckoning? Or can you always delay it?