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mahatmakanejeeves

(61,039 posts)
Sat Jun 11, 2022, 06:27 AM Jun 2022

'Catastrophically bad' inflation report is boosting chances of a 75-basis-point interest-rate hike

Market Extra

‘Catastrophically bad’ inflation report is boosting chances of a 75-basis-point interest-rate hike next week

Last Updated: June 10, 2022 at 1:30 p.m. ET
First Published: June 10, 2022 at 12:00 p.m. ET
By Vivien Lou Chen

Friday’s consumer-price index report for May — which showed the annual headline U.S. inflation rate climbing to 8.6% in May, with few signs of having peaked — is boosting the chances of a jumbo-sized rate increase by monetary-policy makers as soon as next week, and eliciting dire warnings that central bankers have completely lost control of prices.

Fed funds futures traders now see a 21% chance of a 75-basis-point hike in June, up from just 3.6% on Thursday, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Economists at Barclays BARC, -3.69% and Jefferies backed up the shifting expectations, by indicating they expect policy makers to deliver a hike of that magnitude at their June 14-15 meeting.

Beneath the issue of where the Fed goes from here is a much more fundamental and serious problem: Some observers fear the U.S. central bank has already effectively lost control of inflation. May’s price gains were broad-based — hitting everything from shelter to gasoline and food, as well as the narrower gauge, the so-called core reading, that excludes food and energy. The data were “catastrophically bad” for both the Fed and Americans, said Nancy Tengler, chief executive and chief investment officer of Nashville-based Laffer Tengler Investments, which oversees $1.1 billion.

{snip}

Below is a roundup of the reaction to Friday’s CPI data:

{snip}
17 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
'Catastrophically bad' inflation report is boosting chances of a 75-basis-point interest-rate hike (Original Post) mahatmakanejeeves Jun 2022 OP
This is the fallout from 12 years of QE distortion of the economy and Powell delayed action bucolic_frolic Jun 2022 #1
Powell was so wrong on "Transitory" forecast at140 Jun 2022 #9
Fock CentralMass Jun 2022 #2
As Harry Truman used to say, mahatmakanejeeves Jun 2022 #3
A maxim Trump single-handedly redefined peppertree Jun 2022 #16
I finally found one bright spot in yesterday's inflation report -- the core CPI "eased" progree Jun 2022 #4
My wallet did not find anything bright at the stores last week at140 Jun 2022 #10
Looking at food at home data series - 5 months in a row of 1% or more monthly increases progree Jun 2022 #13
Result of unbalanced budgets year after year. at140 Jun 2022 #17
Most of the current inflation is based upon greed and power. Chainfire Jun 2022 #5
This, sadly, is so true. Scrivener7 Jun 2022 #6
+1 CentralMass Jun 2022 #7
I am retired, and my plan this fall is..... at140 Jun 2022 #11
I don't mind gambling. Chainfire Jun 2022 #12
Buy when everyone else is selling at140 Jun 2022 #14
On the brighter side... Get Me Outta Here Jun 2022 #8
Reminds me of Alfred Kahn's description of inflation as "God-awful" peppertree Jun 2022 #15

bucolic_frolic

(47,053 posts)
1. This is the fallout from 12 years of QE distortion of the economy and Powell delayed action
Sat Jun 11, 2022, 06:38 AM
Jun 2022

on raising interest rates. They knew 10 months ago, but they dragged their feet on tightening, on bond purchases. They left themselves painted into a corner with nothing but poor choices.

at140

(6,135 posts)
9. Powell was so wrong on "Transitory" forecast
Sat Jun 11, 2022, 04:45 PM
Jun 2022

I will be shocked if Powell has the balls to push for anything higher than 0.5% rate increase.

peppertree

(22,850 posts)
16. A maxim Trump single-handedly redefined
Sat Jun 11, 2022, 10:54 PM
Jun 2022

"The buck stops here - so leave'em right here if you want anything done, capisce?"

progree

(11,463 posts)
4. I finally found one bright spot in yesterday's inflation report -- the core CPI "eased"
Sat Jun 11, 2022, 07:03 AM
Jun 2022

from 6.2% year over year in April (April '22 over April '21), to 6.0% year over year in May (May '22 over May '21).

at140

(6,135 posts)
10. My wallet did not find anything bright at the stores last week
Sat Jun 11, 2022, 04:48 PM
Jun 2022

Common household purchases continue to be significantly more expensive than a year ago. Food prices increased to 10.1%, the first increase of 10% or more since the period ending in March 1981.

progree

(11,463 posts)
13. Looking at food at home data series - 5 months in a row of 1% or more monthly increases
Sat Jun 11, 2022, 05:18 PM
Jun 2022

And in March, April, and May, the 12 month increases were 10.0%, 10.8%, and 11.9% respectively

Food at home, BLS data series: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SAF11

Click on "More Formatting Options" (upper right), and then check the boxes
[v/] Original Data Value
[v/] 1 month Percent Change
[v/] 12 month Percent Change

Check the other percent change boxes as one wishes
Change the date range as one wishes

The purchasing power of my FIXED DOLLAR annuity is melting away.

at140

(6,135 posts)
17. Result of unbalanced budgets year after year.
Sun Jun 12, 2022, 06:21 PM
Jun 2022

There was a time when I could not carry $25 worth of groceries in my arms.
Now $100 worth of groceries I can carry.
Am I getting stronger in my senior years?

 

Chainfire

(17,757 posts)
5. Most of the current inflation is based upon greed and power.
Sat Jun 11, 2022, 08:43 AM
Jun 2022

If Republicans win big during the mid-terms things will suddenly, just like magic, improve, and show the people that it is only Republicans that can save their pocketbooks.

As a retired person, inflation is my biggest fear. It has already wiped out a significant percentage of the value of my life savings. Unlike previous inflationary periods I will not have a chance to recover after it ends.

at140

(6,135 posts)
11. I am retired, and my plan this fall is.....
Sat Jun 11, 2022, 04:53 PM
Jun 2022

to buy stocks with 75% of my retirement funds & savings. I expect a further huge drop in stocks during 2022. Hoping 2023 will then be a good year for stocks recovery, and I can make a profit to help with inflation.

 

Chainfire

(17,757 posts)
12. I don't mind gambling.
Sat Jun 11, 2022, 05:14 PM
Jun 2022

In fact, I enjoy a good game of poker. When I play poker, I get to open the new deck of cards, shuffle the deck, cut the cards, observe the deal, bet according to what I see, and I get to see the winning hand. I see who was the winner, and if I lose, I know why. If I could just quit drawing to inside straights...

I left some of my money in an investment account and have watched in go up and down like an elevator. I would rather hide the bulk of my savings under the mattress than to give it over to brokers. At least under the mattress, it can't be wiped out in a panic. And before someone freaks out, no, I don't literally keep the bulk of my money under the mattress, but at the rate of return on a savings account, it just as well be.

at140

(6,135 posts)
14. Buy when everyone else is selling
Sat Jun 11, 2022, 05:29 PM
Jun 2022

and sell when everyone else is buying.
Works better than any other method I have tried.
I expect some heavy selling to continue in 2022.
Time to buy.

peppertree

(22,850 posts)
15. Reminds me of Alfred Kahn's description of inflation as "God-awful"
Sat Jun 11, 2022, 10:50 PM
Jun 2022

He was, of course, Carter's inflation czar. - and like today, ballooning corporate profits were partly to blame (at least through '79).

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