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November jobs preview: Payrolls projected to fall to 200,000

Alexandra Semenova · Reporter
Thu, December 1, 2022 at 5:52 PM · 4 min read

The U.S. labor market is projected to have cooled last month alongside rising interest rates.

The Labor Department is set to release its November monthly jobs report at 8:30 a.m. ET on Friday. Here are Wall Street's expectations for the report, according to Bloomberg data:

• Non-farm payrolls: +200,000 expected vs. +261,000 in October

• Unemployment rate: 3.7% expected vs. 3.7% in October

• Average hourly earnings, month-over-month: +0.3% expected vs. +0.3% in October

• Average hourly earnings, year-over-year: +4.6% expected vs. +4.7% in October

If figures come in on par with forecasts, the estimated print will mark the lowest monthly reading in non-farm payrolls since April 2021. Still, with pre-pandemic levels averaging 150-200,000 jobs added or created per month, the figure would reflect a healthy snapshot of labor conditions based on historical trends.

A cool-off in November employment data would be a welcome sign for Federal Reserve officials who have vigorously tried to tamp down an extraordinarily tight labor market that has placed upward pressure on wages and contributed to soaring prices.

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