Bull Durham

What is the expected stock market response?

Maybe someone really did say that.

https://quoteinvestigator.com/2013/09/28/market-fluctuate/

The 1.4% is for the last period which was October (meaning 3 months through October).

That's very interesting. The whole friggin' CPI except for the shelter component, increased at an ANNUALIZED rate of 1.4% over the last 3 months (through October)


The whole CPI: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0
3 month annualized rate: +3.84% (calculated by taking the CPI level in October and the one in July)

One can see the rolling 3 month increase (GRAPH and table) by:

Click on "More Formatting Options" on the upper right, and on the page that shows up, click the 3 month checkbox:
The October number is a 3 month increase of 0.9% which when multiple by 4 (to annualize it) is 3.6% which approximately matches
Or more accurately: (1.009^4-1)*100% = 3.65%, also an approximate match to the 3.84%
This has shown a nice declining trend (except for the upturn in the last number (remember the below are 3 month increases NOT annualized):
YEAR Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
2022 1.9 2.0 2.7 2.4 2.6 2.6 2.3 1.4 0.5 0.9


CORE CPI: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0L1E
3 month annualized rate: +5.81% (calculated by taking the Core CPI level in October and the one in July)
Interesting, this has been rather stable (remember the below are 3 month increases NOT annualized):
YEAR Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
2022 1.7 1.7 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4


To summarize, the 3 months increase ending October, annualized:
3.8%   CPI
1.4%   CPI less shelter
5.8%   CORE CPI = CPI less food and energy