Next week's major U.S. economic reports (February 13 -- February 17)
The consumer price index gets released on Tuesday. Producer prices are released on Thursday.
MarketWatch updates the schedule throughout the week. Check their site for revisions.
TIME (ET) REPORT PERIOD ACTUAL MEDIAN FORECAST PREVIOUS
MONDAY, FEB. 13
11 am NY Fed 1-year inflation expectations Jan. -- 5.0%
11 am NY Fed 5-year inflation expectations Jan. -- 2.4%
TUESDAY, FEB. 14
6 am NFIB small-business index Jan. 90.0 89.8
8:30 am Consumer price index Jan. 0.4% -0.1%
8:30 am Core CPI Jan. 0.3% 0.3%
8:30 am CPI (year-over-year) Jan. 6.2% 6.5%
8:30 am Core CPI (year-over-year) Jan. 5.4% 5.7%
WEDNESDAY, FEB. 15
8:30 am Retail sales Jan. 1.7% -1.1%
8:30 am Retail sales excluding motor vehicles Jan. 0.7% -1.1%
8:30 am Empire state manufacturing index Feb. -19.2 -32.9
9:15 am Industrial production index Jan. 0.4% -0.7%
9:15 am Capacity utilization rate Jan. 79.0% 78.8%
10 am NAHB home builders' index Feb. 36 35
10 am Business inventories Dec. 0.3% 0.4%
THURSDAY, FEB. 16
8:30 am Initial jobless claims Feb. 11 200,000 196,000
8:30 am Continuing jobless claims Feb. 4 -- 1.69 million
8:30 am Producer price index final demand Jan. 0.4% -0.5%
8:30 am Building permits Jan. 1.35 million 1.34 million
8:30 am Housing starts Jan. 1.35 million 1.38 million
8:30 am Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey Feb. -7.4 -8.9
11 am Household debt (SAAR) Q4 -- 8.3%
FRIDAY, FEB. 17
8:30 am Import price index Jan. -0.1% 0.4%
10 am Index of leading economic indicators Jan. -0.4% -1.0%
https://www.chase.com/personal/investments/learning-and-insights/category/markets
Chase seems to have stopped posting these. Maybe they'll start up again.
Up next for the markets: November 7 – November 11
Alex Bova
Content and Communications, J.P. Morgan Wealth Management
Nov 02, 2022 | 3 min read
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= new reply since forum marked as read
Last edited Sun Feb 12, 2023, 04:06 PM - Edit history (2)
(assuming it does come out at +0.4% for January)
CPI report for January due Tuesday Feb 14, 8:30 am ET
Dec. Expected for January
----- ---------------------
-0.1% +0.4% Consumer price index
+0.3% +0.3% Core CPI
(edit: oops, see below: the BLS revised the December CPI from -0.1% to +0.1%, sigh, and the Core CPI was revised up in Dec from +0.3% to +0.4%)
THIS GRAPH FROM BEFORE THE REVISIONS:
CPI - just looked now, 2/12/23: 12 months of 2022:
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0&output_view=pct_1mth
0.6 0.7 1.0 0.4 0.9 1.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.1
Core CPI - just looked now, 2/12/23: 12 months of 2022:
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0L1E&output_view=pct_1mth
0.6 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.4
Edited to add: Even so, if the predictions come out to be true (cpi:+0.4% and core cpi:+0.3% in January), the year over year figures will drop, because last January's numbers (Jan 2022) were +0.6% for both. The year over year is essentially a moving average of the last 12 months, and as far as changes in the year-over-year, what drops off the back end of the series (January 2022) is just as important as what gets added to the series (January 2023). True for any moving average. We tend to focus on the front end and almost forget about what drops out of the back end.
More on CPI and graphs of PCE (Fed's favorite) and PPI (wholesale prices) as well
https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143027460#post20
Big Edit to add:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/news/ahead-of-tuesday-s-cpi-data-larry-summers-warns-further-inflation-reduction-will-be-harder-we-re-getting-closer-to-the-red-zone/ar-AA17njFG
Looks like I'll have to revise my graphs, sigh. Also my various calculations of last 3 months, last 6 months annualized. Tuesday will be busy busy day.