I use AI at work to write software for me. Pretty much error free the first time. The "thinking" part of the job is in detailing the query sufficiently to solve the issue.

The lower the amount of invention needed the more AI will take over.

I was doing Dev/OPS for a large tech company... but python scripts to process report generation from logs of thousands or millions of log files (JSON or TXT or whatever) can now be completely done by Bard or ChatGPT. Fortunately I was recently promoted to Senior Architect and changed divisions away from the Dev/OPS team. I think the army of engineers in my former division could easily be on the chopping blocks.

On the other hand, my company is growing rapidly so they are still hiring.

The same goes for economic downturns.

It was a bit of a head turner for him as ever since he graduated from college with his EE degree, he only saw more demand for his skillset than any chance of a layoff. As he works in Silicon Valley and has been thru Lockheed Martin, Apple and is now leaving Microsoft (of his own volition for a better position at Meta) he has friends that have gotten caught up in the recent layoffs and even coworkers on his team at Microsoft. His take is that there was so much shortage of talent for so long that many companies, Meta being the most notable, were simply hiring engineers to capture the skills market and have them "on the bench" for the next great idea/initiative. After awhile that proved a liability and they ended up here doing layoffs. Meta especially had its stock turn sharply south and layoffs are a great signal to Wall Street you understand investors want profits not just potential. Other than the shotgun approach eLoon took at Twitter in layoffs, my kid thinks most of the layoffs he has seen directly or via friends in other tech companies have been strategic. Within his own team at Microsoft he said most of those let go were either dead wood or roles that were no longer of high productive value to the mission. It's not kind as some of those folks ended up in dead end roles as a result of company decisions not due to skillset deficiencies.

And layoffs have been a thing for at leat the last 20.

Routine. Layoff out of one door while hiring in another.

Why?

Get rid of excess employees in areas you don't need them with skills you don't need. Hire the skills you want and put them where you need them.

Rinse. Lather. Repeat.

It also let's companies get rid of overpaid employees and replace them with new college hires. They are more productive and lower cost.

People are capital, and they both wear out and become more expensive.