Economy
Related: About this forumArgentina's Mileise: Construction, manufacturing collapse amid plummeting demand
Argentina's Statistics Bureau (INDEC) reported that industrial activity registered a drop of 21.2% in March compared to the same month in 2023 - while construction plummeted 42.2%.
Both indicators are a clear example of the strong recession facing the economy, after the strong devaluation implemented on December 12th by the far-right Javier Milei administration.
The 118% devaluation - a record for any single day in Argentine history - promptly resulted in wholesale prices jumping an astonishing 54% in December alone.
All sixteen major industrial sectors saw declines - with electronic equipment, devices and instruments (42.8%), furniture, mattresses and other (40.4%), electrical machinery and equipment (37.9%), and steel and aluminum (34.0%) slowing most.
Construction, for its part, suffered a 42.2% collapse. Such a contraction was only recorded by this indicator in the [foreign debt crisis] period 2001-02, and during the quarantine months of 2020, economist Orlando Ferreres noted.
Ferreres' monthly gross domestic investment estimate showed a 22.3% annual crash in March.
Milei was elected in November on promises to jump-start the country's economy after decades of populist disaster by copying Reagan and Thatcher-era pro-business recipes.
Critics charge that his policies instead resemble those of the fascist, last dictatorship (1976-83), and of the neo-conservative Mauricio Macri (2015-19) - both of which left massive foreign debt and economic crises in their wake.
At: https://somostelam-com-ar.translate.goog/noticias/economia/continua-el-derrumbe-en-el-nivel-de-actividad-la-industria-cayo-en-marzo-212-y-la-construccion-422/?_x_tr_sl=es&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp
A normally hectic pedestrian street in downtown Buenos Aires stands empty during today's general strike against far-right President Javier Milei's recessionary policies.
Led by a collapse in manufacturing and construction, economists estimate a 10% fall in monthly GDP in March - a downturn approaching that of the lockdown-induced nationwide stoppage in March-April 2020.
This recession, however, is viewed as unlikely to see the "V-shaped" recovery that followed the 2020 lockdown, with a projected drought in 2025 likely to prolong the ongoing "Mileise" for the hard currency-strapped country of 47 million.
bucolic_frolic
(46,561 posts)Tried and true Argentina methods for the wealthy.
peppertree
(22,842 posts)Argentina's elites aren't as interested in making money, as they are (in their words) in "remaking society."
Their goal is to live like gods among ants - in an impoverished society of people too poor, confused, and just plain exhausted to organize and/or react in any real way (or even vote intelligently).
And I don't need to tell you - that as much as they disdain that pill-popping loon (with good reason), Republican billionaires are keeping an eye on Milei and his "scorched earth" experiment.
Not to see if it can succeed (they know it can't - least of all in an already-vulnerable economy like Argentina's) - but to see how much the public will put up with before they riot en masse.
As you know, they loved the feeling they got during the 2008 Bush calamity and 2020 pandemic panic - when they made trillions selling short while millions lost everything.
And to paraphrase Barry Manilow, they're trying to get that feeling again.
Warpy
(113,093 posts)Since he's been in office, inflation is still increasing month on month, but it's doing so much more slowly. He warned people it was going to get worse before it got any better, and he does seem to be on the right track. It remains to be seen whether or not people have enough of nasty medicine and overthrow the government again, blaming whoever they can catch for this mess. Likely, they'll be the wrong people. Again.
I remember how tough it was to cope with double digit inflation and wages that weren't going to budge until the Republicans were out of office long enough for sane people to realize they're a lagging indicator and not inflationary. I can't imagine prices that triple and then triple again, going back to eating just enough to keep one's stomach from hurting too much.
Shit.
Millei is going to have to address some of the problems the most vulnerable people are facing because of his tough medicine.
peppertree
(22,842 posts)As all the data clearly indicate.
All Argentines know this painfully - except that right-wingers mumble that "it's worth it" (btw: they said the same about the last dictatorship - whose policies he's basically copying).
Make no mistake: Chucky's policies are absolute anathema to any Democrat, or traditional (pro-business) Republican, for that matter - basically a scorched-earth, pro-cyclical suicide attempt akin to imposing sanctions on your own country.
And while seniors, education, public works, provinces and other domestic needs (including police) are being starved, and importers, pharmacies, and energy wholesalers are owed billions (being paid, piecemeal, in near-worthless bonds)...
the little pill-popper is buying 24 useless, Reagan-era F-16s at $338 million a pop (which Argentina can't use anyway, thanks to the UK embargo on anything with UK-sourced parts) - just to endear himself to neo-cons and their apologists.
I for one do hope he finishes out his one term - and he probably will, given that he still enjoys RW media and grudging business elite support (they're hemorrhaging money - but he sings their tune, the poor idiots).
But he should certainly be tried afterward for fraud, malfeasance, and (given his undeclared accounts) corruption.
Now. Luckily for him, this is Argentina - where the courts are mostly like something out of Torquemada.
So I say, let him (and his 4 million-peso-a-month gay lover) retire to Miami. And caramba, may those people learn once and for all.
Thank you for caring, and I appreciate your thoughts.
Warpy
(113,093 posts)It's slowing. It has neither stopped nor reversed. I thought I made that pretty clear.
I also pointed out that people will need water, food, and shelter (it's the Argemtine winter) or he's going to find himself overthrown. The diehard Peronists aren't going to like that part.
peppertree
(22,842 posts)Keep in mind also that monthly rates fail to take into account much of the bestial (300%+) utility rate hikes lately (and April was the worst).
But don't worry about him:
Milei is unlikely to be overthrown or be forced to reign by riots because a) Argentina's notoriously Fox-ified corporate media still largely support him; b) because business and landowning elites do as well (though the recent departure of HSBC from Argentina, as well as mounting losses generally, have upset many); and c) because as long as he doesn't seize deposits (swapping them with worthless bonds - like he's doing to importers and energy wholesalers), the middle class won't riot.
That's what brought down the hapless (and likewise conservative - but sane) Fernando de la Rúa in 2001.
There was somethign in the air that night, the stars were bright....ahem, sorry.
Had the riots been limited to the slums, he might've held on. And that's what might likely happen with this one:
The poor might riot (we'll see) - but big media will immediately play the race and class card, instigating the "good" middle class to "stand up for our president" against "those indians."
Because like with U.S. Republicans, fascist leanings have, sadly, long been strong among Argentina's middle class. And Milei and his apologists know that.
Plus he'll have no compunctions against mowing protesters down - knowing the courts will give him a pass (like they did de la Rúa).
So he'll likely limp along until 2027 - and then high-tail it with his gay boo and spoiled dogs to Miami, where he'll bitch to the Cubans about what "shitty people" Argentines are.
And like McCarthy, probably drink himself to death.
Qué será.