This week's U.S. inflation report could have serious implications for stocks
Published: July 7, 2024 at 12:01 p.m. ET
By Joseph Adinolfi
A softer-than-expected number could pressure the Fed to signal an interest rate cut is likely in September — or even open the door to one later this month
Thursday’s inflation report is expected to be the main event for U.S. markets during a busy week that also includes the start of the second quarter corporate earnings reporting season, a handful of Treasury debt auctions, and potential developments in the presidential election race.
Like all marquee economic releases, the June consumer price index numbers could have serious ramifications for markets, but investors will be paying especially close attention this month, as the timing of the Federal Reserve’s first interest-rate cut could hang in the balance.
At the very least, a smaller than expected rise in inflation could encourage Fed Chair Jerome Powell to more forcefully prime the market for a rate cut at the Fed’s September meeting, but some believe that a sufficiently weak number could even open the door to a rate cut in a few weeks, something that futures-market traders have dismissed as extremely unlikely, according to CME Group data.
{snip}
= new reply since forum marked as read
and Consumer Sentiment on Friday. No indicators on the strength of the economy and job market this week except the usual Thursday unemployment insurance claims report (the other factor in any rate change decisions).
Here's where the stand now on the CPI and PPI (producer price index, aka wholesale inflation) --
"Regular" is the "headline" number that has "everything"
"Core" is the regular with food and energy removed (The Fed prefers this as a basis for projecting FUTURE inflation)
More explanations and also the Fed's favorite PCE inflation is at https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1014&pid=3263090
CORE CPI through May that came out 6/12/24
CORE CPI (seasonally adjusted) http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0L1E
BLS CPI news release: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
The Regular aka Headline CPI through May that came out 6/12/24
Regular CPI (seasonally adjusted) https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0
BLS CPI news release: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
WHOLESALE INFLATION (PPI - the Producer Price Index)
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm
As for which core PPI measure, since the BLS highlights the one below in its reporting (as opposed to the one without food and energy), then I guess I should do likewise.
CORE PPI (excluding food, energy, trade services) through May that came out 6/13/24:
CORE PPI (seasonally adjusted) http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/WPSFD49116
===========================================================
Regular PPI through May that came out 6/13/24 ( includes "everything" ):
Regular PPI (seasonally adjusted) http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/WPSFD4
