FACT FOCUS: Trump blends falsehoods and exaggerations at rambling NJ press conference

BY ASSOCIATED PRESS
Updated 7:49 PM EDT, August 15, 2024

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‘Foreign born’ is not the same as ‘migrants’

TRUMP: “Virtually 100% of the net job creation in the last year has gone to migrants.”

THE FACTS: This is a misinterpretation of government jobs data. The figures do show that the number of foreign-born people with jobs has increased in the past year, while the number of native-born Americans with jobs has declined. But foreign-born is not the same as “migrants” -- it would include people who arrived in the U.S. years ago and are now naturalized citizens.

In addition, the data is based on Census research that many economists argue is undercounting both foreign- and native-born workers. According to a report by Wendy Edelberg and Tara Watson at the Brookings Institution released this week, native-born employment rose by 740,000 in 2023, while foreign-born rose by 1.7 million. Much of the disparity reflects the fact that the native-born population is older than the foreign-born, and are more likely to be retired. In addition, the unemployment rate for native-born Americans is 4.5%, lower than the 4.7% for foreign-born.

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The strong labor market has boosted US-born employment

Wendy Edelberg and Tara Watson
August 13, 2024

Key takeaways:
• Both U.S.-born and foreign-born employment increased more than published data show.
• The authors estimate that U.S.-born employment increased by about 740,000 over the course of 2023. In contrast, the published data in the Current Population Survey show a decline of 190,000.
• They estimate that the increase in employment among foreign-born people was 1.7 million, larger than the 1.2 million in the published data.
• Higher estimates for both U.S.-born and foreign-born employment stem from migration numbers that are not yet captured by official population statistics.


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@taraelizwatson

We estimate that U.S.-born employment increased by about 740,000 over the course of 2023. In contrast, the published data in the Current Population Survey (CPS) show a decline of 190,000. In addition, we estimate that the increase in employment among foreign-born people was 1.7 million, larger than the 1.2 million in the published data. Our higher estimates of employment stem from compelling evidence of recent population growth fueled by an unanticipated surge in migration that is not yet captured in official population statistics underlying the CPS. As we explain, the unanticipated surge has had implications for estimates of employment among both foreign-born and U.S.-born people.

In our previous work, we provided evidence that CPS data underestimated the recent increase in the civilian non-institutionalized population of people in the United States ages 16 and up (hereafter referred to as the population). That piece presented estimates of aggregate population numbers and employment growth that were larger than published CPS data. Our estimates of stronger employment growth are more consistent with the relatively strong employment growth in the Establishment Survey, which reports survey data collected from firms.

Here, we decompose aggregate population and employment growth into growth among the U.S.-born and among the foreign-born subpopulations. We find that the published data in the CPS significantly underestimate population growth from January 2023 to January 2024 and, thus, employment growth over the year for both groups. It is perhaps counterintuitive that measurement issues stemming from an unexpected surge in net migration would result in the underestimation of the growth in the U.S.-born population, but this is indeed the case.

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