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October jobs report expected to show slowing growth amid hurricane aftermath, Boeing strike

Josh Schafer · Reporter
Thu, October 31, 2024 at 1:54 PM EDT 3 min read

The October jobs report is expected to show job gains slowed significantly during the month as recent hurricanes and a strike by Boeing workers weigh on the labor market.

The monthly report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, slated for release at 8:30 a.m. ET on Friday, is expected to show nonfarm payrolls rose by 105,000 in October while the unemployment rate held flat at 4.1%, according to consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg. This would mark the lowest monthly number of job additions since December 2020. ... In September, the US economy shocked Wall Street by adding 254,000 jobs, well above consensus estimates. The unemployment rate declined to 4.1%.

Here are the key numbers Wall Street will be looking at on Friday morning compared to the previous month, according to data from Bloomberg:

• Nonfarm payrolls: +105,000 vs. +254,000 previously

• Unemployment rate: 4.1% vs. 4.1% previously

• Average hourly earnings, month over month: +0.3% vs. +0.4% previously

• Average hourly earnings, year over year: +4.0% vs. +4.0% previously

• Average weekly hours worked: 34.2 vs. 34.2 previously

Hurricane Milton made landfall in Florida on Oct. 9 during the survey week for the October jobs report, which "probably weighed on payrolls across the board, especially in leisure & hospitality," Bank of America US economist Shruti Mishra wrote in a note to clients.

Overall, Shruti's team believes the hurricanes and a strike at Boeing will lower payrolls by at least 50,000. Given that, Shruti argued a reading of around 100,000 job additions would still be a "solid print."

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