The only way I could figure this working out for you, is 2 years out and long, out of the money.

I agree, it is better than "red" or "black" but still, a long bet.

I've only decided to get back into options trading, earlier this week and haven't had time to do much research...

For now I really only have DJX as an example. If I placed a Put on the Dow I'd need to save up a bit before I could sink enough in to make a difference, but I 'd start with a June 19 just outside the money. It looks cheap enough that I could afford three, maybe four contracts. Enough of a profit to make the initial risk worth it, especially if it drops the way it did in 2007.

Not betting the rent money on it. But I want to get in sooner rather than later. If the economy lasts another year as is, I'd be surprised, but I'll also have more time to save up for future investments. If I wait til I can afford a two year I might miss the chance.

Like I said, going to take more time digging into it over the weekend...

Just remember that some people decided to sell everything the day after Trump was elected because the were certain the market would tank big time. It hasn't.

In the long run a balanced portfolio is your best hedge, preferably in good mutual funds.

Alternatively, investing in stocks that pay dividends can be a winning strategy. You can either re-invest the dividends, or use them to supplement your income. There are people here who have done that over the years and seem very happy with the results.

However, to answer your question: to research what companies or industries did badly in the 2008 debacle, would probably be a fairly simple matter of going to the local library and look at the daily stock tables from a newspaper for a six month period. You already have a handle on which companies you want to look at. The research will be tedious, and I doubt there's any quick way to get it done.

For example, Amazon:

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GM/history?p=AMZN

Then set the time period to whatever one is interested in. Here is Amazon (AMZN) from 10/01/2007 to 03/10/2009, showing monthly (one can set to daily or weekly)

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMZN/history?period1=1191214800&period2=1236661200&interval=1mo&filter=history&frequency=1mo

One can use the same URL for other stocks just by changing the AMZN to whatever the next stock's symbol is.

I had no idea that was out there!

More to the point, it means that the OP can quite readily research what he wants. Excellent!

Last edited Sat Jul 28, 2018, 09:25 AM - Edit history (1)

etc.)

I'm glad you found it useful! There's an even bigger secret -- the Adjusted Close is the Close, but adjusted for dividend and other distributions. So using the adjusted close, one can find the Total Return between any 2 dates. I haven't found any other way or website where I can do that.

For example: VFIAX, the Vanguard S&P 500 Admiral mutual fund.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/VFIAX/history?p=VFIAX

Looking at 10 years ending 7/27/18:

Date ` ` CLOSE ` Adjusted.Close
7/27/18: 260.52, 260.52
7/25/08: 115.92, 93.81 (the last close on or before 7/27/08)

The Close is simply the closing price. The Adjusted.Close is adjusted for dividends and other distributions, and splits.

Using just the closing price, the price went from 115.92 to 260.52, a 2.2474-fold increase which comes to a 8.435% annualized return
(1.08435^10 = 2.2474), where "^" is exponentiation.

To calculate the annualized return in Excel: =EXP( LN(260.52/115.92)/10 )-1 = 0.084346969 = 8.435%

That would be the return if one threw the dividends away.

But using the adjusted close, the total value including reinvested dividends and other distributions went from 93.81 to 260.52, a 2.7771-fold increase.
which comes to a 10.754% annualized return (1.10754^10 = 2.7771)

To check my work, Morningstar has the annualized total return for several n year periods ending 7/27/18 (that will disappear after Monday's close)
http://performance.morningstar.com/fund/performance-return.action?t=VFIAX&region=usa&culture=en_US

10 years ending 7/27/18: 10.75% (matches my calculation to 2 places to the right of the decimal).

(I've done this kind of calculation and checking against Morningstar and other total return sources many many times)

This also works for regular stocks and ETFs too. (Note Amazon doesn't pay dividends, so that's not a good example for this). XEL (Xcel Energy) does, for example.

Note: Yahoo shows a 10.16% annualized 10 year return,

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/VFIAX/performance/

but I think they are using end of June figures for the n-month and n-year returns (the last time I was there they specified what the period was, now there is no indication, GRRRRRR Yahoo). Unlike Morningstar which is clear that it is 10 years as of 7/27/18.

I usually use Yahoo for the historic quotes and Morningstar for everything else.

Note: at the end of Monday, 7/30/18's close, the Morningstar as-of-7/27/18 return values will be gone forever, and will be replaced by as-of-7/30/18 figures.

Adjusted Close is not the same as Close for stocks and ETFs and mutual funds that pay dividends and have other distributions --

For example, scroll down https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/XEL/history?p=XEL

Date, Close, Adjusted.Close

June 14: 42.87, 42.87 <-same for June 14 and later dates

June 14 distribution: 0.38

June 13: 42.50, 42.12 <- different for June 13 and earlier dates

Adjusted close is close but adjusted for the dividend.

If it's not that, what is it that you think is redundant?

I posted before fully reading your post above mine, that’s all.

I gave a link to Morningstar and then noticed I was “A day late and a dollar short” as my father would say! You had already done that.

It’s all good