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golfguru

(4,987 posts)
Sat Dec 31, 2011, 12:14 PM Dec 2011

Why long term bonds are a bad deal at this time

Just look at this diagram. It shows the official debt of each country as a percentage of it's GDP and the unfunded liabilities for promised social programs.

These mountains of debt can never be paid with existing currencies. They will be dealt with by printing fiat money. And that means any long term fixed income investments will lose value of principal in a huge proportion.

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Why long term bonds are a bad deal at this time (Original Post) golfguru Dec 2011 OP
May be correct for listed countries, but there are others, right? elleng Dec 2011 #1
Yes, some other countries are in better shape golfguru Dec 2011 #2
Consulting with financial advisor, decide where to go with all this. elleng Dec 2011 #3
What it all boils down to is... golfguru Dec 2011 #4
Will likely have a widely diversified portfolio. elleng Dec 2011 #5
Do not be hasty golfguru Jan 2012 #9
Will confirm w financial advisor once funds available. Want to decide w/in 1-2 months, elleng Jan 2012 #10
Just for my curiosity, how do you pay the advisor? golfguru Jan 2012 #11
1.2%/year, payable quarterly. elleng Jan 2012 #12
Is that on the AUM or on the gain? n/t A HERETIC I AM Jan 2012 #13
AUM, I think! elleng Jan 2012 #14
"So there is the risk of capital loss" A HERETIC I AM Jan 2012 #6
aha.... golfguru Jan 2012 #7
Fair enough, but that's not "capital loss". A HERETIC I AM Jan 2012 #8
Yeah, quite frankly I'm a bit frightened when I look at something like this. OllieLotte Apr 2012 #15
Are you aware that gov't inflation numbers exclude golfguru Apr 2012 #16
Understood. When they mention the inflation they usually state that it excludes food & energy costs OllieLotte Apr 2012 #17
My current strategy.... golfguru Apr 2012 #18
Europe is getting really interesting. OllieLotte Jun 2012 #19
does Spain have more holidays than US? wordpix Jun 2012 #20
First hand experience in a Spanish university golfguru Jun 2012 #21
Keep Commenting ! Billy Patterson Aug 2012 #22
 

golfguru

(4,987 posts)
2. Yes, some other countries are in better shape
Sat Dec 31, 2011, 05:11 PM
Dec 2011

Since we North Americans buy mostly North American bonds, those are the most risk prone. The European PIIGS country bonds have even bigger risks.

Someday economy will bounce back, and interest rates will jump up. Bond price is inversely proportional to interest rates. So there is the risk of capital loss. Then again the economy could stay weak for 5 years. Time to buy LT bonds is when interest rates are at high levels.

elleng

(136,569 posts)
3. Consulting with financial advisor, decide where to go with all this.
Sat Dec 31, 2011, 05:44 PM
Dec 2011

Can't afford capital loss, so will be studying the world.
Thanks

 

golfguru

(4,987 posts)
4. What it all boils down to is...
Sat Dec 31, 2011, 09:51 PM
Dec 2011

there is just no good place to park your money. CD rates are abysmal. LT Bonds are risky. I am watching situation in Europe to resolve somewhat, and if it does, I may start getting back in stocks.

elleng

(136,569 posts)
5. Will likely have a widely diversified portfolio.
Sat Dec 31, 2011, 10:00 PM
Dec 2011

Just came into some cash, and MUST park, grow, and add to income with it, LONG TERM.

Thanks

 

golfguru

(4,987 posts)
9. Do not be hasty
Fri Jan 6, 2012, 11:06 PM
Jan 2012

My gut feeling is you will pick up index funds at 10-15% discount over prevailing prices, sometime in 2012.

That is a lot better than buying a CD or utility stock. Especially avoid long term bonds.

elleng

(136,569 posts)
10. Will confirm w financial advisor once funds available. Want to decide w/in 1-2 months,
Fri Jan 6, 2012, 11:25 PM
Jan 2012

and can change pieces of portfolio over time, I think.
He's sent suggested plans already, but my 'goals' have changed somewhat since we first spoke. I don't think there are any index funds in the plans he suggested, but I'll check. There are bonds of varying terms.

Thanks

 

golfguru

(4,987 posts)
7. aha....
Mon Jan 2, 2012, 12:34 AM
Jan 2012

if inflation and interest rates pick up, and you hold bonds to maturity, you will get your 1000 dollars back but they will buy a lot less. A 30 year bond purchased 30 years ago for 1000 dollars has lost enormous purchasing power.

OllieLotte

(528 posts)
15. Yeah, quite frankly I'm a bit frightened when I look at something like this.
Mon Apr 16, 2012, 08:26 PM
Apr 2012

I expected inflation to be worse than what we have. I still expect it to get ugly, but it's taking far longer to ramp up than I had anticipated.

 

golfguru

(4,987 posts)
16. Are you aware that gov't inflation numbers exclude
Sat Apr 21, 2012, 12:33 PM
Apr 2012

food and energy prices? My grocery bill is escalating 4 times faster than my raises
and gasoline has more than doubled in 3 years. My children's college tuition went up
a whopping 23% last year (univ of Wash). And then there are those pesky healthcare
costs. My health insurance premiums are escalating much faster than my raises also.

OllieLotte

(528 posts)
17. Understood. When they mention the inflation they usually state that it excludes food & energy costs
Thu Apr 26, 2012, 08:21 PM
Apr 2012

Several things which are keeping inflation in check are wages, housing and weakness in overseas currency/economies. Can you imagine if the government is unable to sell all of the treasuries, the glut of homes is finally erased (5 more years)? Inflation is going to be really high. I'd like to buy more gold (stocks) but think there is a good chance of a minor meltdown in Europe in 2012, which will give me more bang for the buck on all kinds of equities.

 

golfguru

(4,987 posts)
18. My current strategy....
Sun Apr 29, 2012, 08:51 PM
Apr 2012

Europe is far from out of the woods. Spain is one example where unemployment is growing by the week and economy is shrinking. My daughter is studying in a university in Spain and I am shocked how many holidays they have. Spain will be next Greece in 2012 and it is too big to be bailed out.

Most of my money is in very short term bonds and gnma's. Only equity exposure on a small scale is in REIT's. I concur there is a huge buying opportunity coming in equities. Do not get caught with your pants down (all in, no cash).

OllieLotte

(528 posts)
19. Europe is getting really interesting.
Sun Jun 3, 2012, 06:04 AM
Jun 2012

Money is pouring out of Greece and Spain. Two year German bonds are paying negative interest. I am somewhat relieved that Europe seems to be playing out in some form or fashion. Having the overhand of Europe was getting old.

wordpix

(18,652 posts)
20. does Spain have more holidays than US?
Fri Jun 22, 2012, 12:00 PM
Jun 2012


A private university near me has a full month off at Xmas time, a week of spring break at end of Mar., and classes end Apr. 30 with exams the week after that. So basically, students are there from late Aug. - late Apr. with Xmas month + Thanksgiving and spring break week off. That's 8 mos - 1.5 mos. for breaks = 6.5 mos. And for this, the tuition is $37K for two semesters, not including books, health insurance, room, board or fees. I am sure these are another $25K/year in my area, at least, even with roommates and group houses/condos.
 

golfguru

(4,987 posts)
21. First hand experience in a Spanish university
Sat Jun 23, 2012, 11:19 PM
Jun 2012

my collegian kid just came back from Spain after studying at a university in Spain
as a foreign exchange student for 5+ months. The number of days without classes
was just amazing. My kid had enough time off to visit England, Ireland, France, Italy,
Germany, Czech repub, Morocco, and 7 trips to various places in Spain itself! All in a
time span of just over 5 months! And on top of that many weekends were sans any
travel!!

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